The Bank of Japan is set to raise rates further. The Fed gov will speak at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole today

The US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 232,000, matching expectations. S&P’s US manufacturing PMI fell by 1.6 to 48.0, weaker than expectations of 49.5 and the lowest report in 8 months. US existing home sales for July rose by 1.3% m/m to 3.95 million, slightly stronger than expectations of 3.94 million. Today, markets await Fed Chair Powell’s opening comments at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for new insights on the Fed’s future policy path. Powell is expected to indicate a willingness to cut rates in September but will not specify the exact timing or size of the cut. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50 bps rate cut at 25%.

Bitcoin has held its recent rise to above $60,000, hitting its highest levels in three weeks. However, recent data showed that bitcoin inventories held by miners reached the highest level in two years. An increase in bitcoin inventories held by miners has historically been associated with falling prices, suggesting that miners may be preparing to sell large amounts of bitcoin.

The ECB’s July 17-18 policy meeting summary states that “the September meeting was an appropriate time to reassess the level of monetary policy tightening, as new economic data and a new set of staff forecasts will emerge.” Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the September 12 meeting at 97%.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.68% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.44% over yesterday and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.21%.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) reiterated its commitment to raise interest rates if inflation steadily reaches its 2% target but realizes that markets at home and abroad remain volatile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Friday. He added that the central bank continues to monitor market volatility following its decision to raise borrowing costs in July. Ueda emphasized that the BoJ’s stance on adjusting the degree of monetary policy easing has not changed.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate in July 2024 was 2.4%, unchanged from the previous month, the lowest since August 2021, and below market forecasts of 2.5%. The annualized core inflation rate fell to 2.5% from 2.9% in the previous month, the lowest since February 2022, and fell short of forecasts of 2.9%.