Oil rises moderately ahead of OPEC+ meeting. ECB plans to cut interest rates next week

US stock indices were not traded yesterday due to the Memorial Day holiday.

On Monday, European stocks closed with solid gains, cutting the previous week’s losses as expectations of monetary easing in the Eurozone gained momentum. Traders are awaiting German and Eurozone inflation data this week, which could bolster expectations that the European Central Bank will start cutting rates next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates next week, and disinflation confidence from the Governing Council has raised equity investors’ hopes that the ECB will continue to cut interest rates in the third quarter. Also in favor of the dovish outlook was Ifo’s German Business Climate Indicator, which came in below expectations and halted three months of growth.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $79 a barrel on Tuesday, pushing back from three-month lows amid expectations that OPEC+ will extend a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels daily in the year’s second half at a June 2 meeting. On the demand side, markets await the release of the key US inflation data this week to gauge the Fed’s future monetary policy actions. A lower-than-expected PCE Price Index reading in the US could lead to higher bets on lower interest rates, supporting the outlook for economic growth and energy demand.

Asian markets were mostly up on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.66%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.17%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.79%. Beijing’s bold move to launch US $47.5 billion worth of chip investment funds continued to support sentiment as China seeks to cement its position as a technology country.

Australian retail sales rose by 0.1% month-on-month in April 2024 versus the market consensus of 0.2%. This was a bounce-back from a 0.4% drop in March amid earlier Easter celebrations and different school vacation timings across the country.