Today, traders are focused on Canadian inflation data and waiting for the RBNZ interest rate decision

On Wednesday, markets will wait for the minutes from the May 1 FOMC meeting to see how close the Fed is to cutting interest rates. Also, on this day, earnings results from Nvidia and Analog Devices will be examined to gauge demand for semiconductor chips.

Canada’s April inflation data will be released today. Overall, price pressures in Canada are easing. The downward trend in various CPI measures has stabilized in the second half of 2023. The core measures — core, median, and overall CPI — declined for the third consecutive month in March. The headline rate rose slightly to 2.8%, but this is not a concern, as wage growth has also slowed since the beginning of the year. The Bank of Canada meets on June 5, and there is a 40% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. A softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index report for April could bring that probability closer to 50-60%. However, even if there is significant downward progress in inflation, a rate cut is more likely in July.

It is almost 100% likely that the ECB will reduce borrowing costs as early as June, but even after that, there is uncertainty, and many policymakers favor a cautious approach. After the June meeting, ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks cautioned against a rush to cut ECB interest rates.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $79 a barrel on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East following the death of Iran’s president in a helicopter crash and emerging health concerns for Saudi Arabia’s king. However, markets are not too worried about oil supplies from the region as there are no signs of oil supply disruptions. Investors are also cautiously anticipating the upcoming OPEC meeting on June 1 for a possible postponement of production cuts. Meanwhile, recent events such as Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries and a Houthi missile attack on a China-bound oil tanker in the Red Sea continued to pose risks to global supply.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.42%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.63%.

Australia’s inflation is declining at a slower-than-expected pace, with recent data suggesting that risks to inflation have risen slightly, minutes from the Reserve Bank’s May meeting showed. The situation prompted the Central Bank to reopen discussions on raising the interest rate, but it ultimately decided that the case for holding the rate was stronger. Policymakers reiterated that bringing inflation back to the target range of 2–3% remains their top priority. They added that the target could be reached in the second half of 2025 and the median in 2026. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to be at a level consistent with the Committee’s full employment mandate by mid-2025.

The New Zealand dollar has weakened slightly recently as traders await Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision. The Central Bank is expected to leave the official money rate at 5.5% for the 7th consecutive meeting. Market attention will thus be focused on whether it will signal that interest rate cuts could begin sooner than the mid-2025 cut indicated in February’s prognoses. Last week, data showed that the country’s two-year inflation expectations fell to the lowest level in almost three years in the second quarter, fueling speculation that the RBNZ may consider cutting rates later this year.