Israel and Hamas are close to negotiations. Bank of America believes that it is not yet time to sell the dollar

On Friday, the US dollar index posted its first weekly decline in 2024 as investors took a break from buying the currency after a nearly two-month rally built on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later than previously thought. Investors shifted expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut to June rather than May, significantly reducing the extent of prime rate cuts by the US Central Bank. But, if the US economy remains as strong as it is, the Fed may not be able to go for a rate cut in June. According to analysts at Bank of America (BofA), it is not yet time to sell the dollar, but it will start to weaken in the second quarter, assuming the Fed cuts rates in June and continues to cut rates quarterly. This will cause the euro to strengthen to 1.15 against the US dollar by the end of the year.

New York Fed President Williams said Friday he expects consumer spending growth to slow this year. At some point, it will be appropriate for the Fed to back off from restrictive monetary policy, likely later this year.

On Friday, a survey showed business activity in Germany improved in February, but probably not enough to prevent Europe’s largest economy from sliding into another recession. ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday called relatively favorable fourth-quarter wage growth data encouraging but not enough for the European Central Bank to be confident that inflation has been beaten.

Markets are now pricing in a similar trajectory of future interest rate cuts for the US and Eurozone, forecasting just over three 25 basis point cuts this year. However, Europe is not in the same enviable position as the US. The world’s largest economy has beaten growth expectations, maintains a tight labor market, and consumers appear healthy at first glance. On the other hand, Europe has narrowly avoided a technical recession several times already, escaping with only minimal losses as quarterly GDP growth hovered around zero. Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel cited that the ECB will receive key price data in the second quarter, cementing expectations of a possible rate cut around mid-year. Earlier on Friday, Robert Holzmann confirmed that the ECB usually follows the Fed regarding the timing of rate adjustments, further weakening bets on a rate cut.

Wednesday and Thursday this week will be G20 meetings, which could indirectly impact financial markets. The sessions are held behind closed doors, but many participants talk to the press between meetings. As this body directly sets interest rate policy, news from here could cause increased volatility.

Crude oil and gasoline prices fell on Friday on concerns about energy demand in China. According to RBC Capital Markets, China’s domestic oil demand has been weak, and limited stimulus measures from the government have disappointed. Oil was also pressured by signs that Israel will join peace talks in Paris, which could reduce some geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

US natural gas prices fell over 6% to $1.6 per bbl on Friday, they were driven by oversupply, ample storage, and lower heating demand amid a mild winter. The mild weather has pushed inventories well above average, with the latest EIA data showing inventories 22.3% above the seasonal norm.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 1.51% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.44% last week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up 2.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative 0.19%.

According to analysts, if the annual compensation negotiations between major Japanese companies and labor unions, due to conclude in mid-March, result in wage growth of 4.0%, BoJ policymakers may gain confidence in the sustainability of wage growth to pull the trigger and move away from negative rates finally.