Oil prices are declining amid growing geopolitical risk in the Middle East. The FOMC minutes were mixed

According to the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday last month, the Federal Reserve leadership considered the outlook for the US economy uncertain and said it would “proceed cautiously” in deciding whether to raise the benchmark interest rate further. Such caution is generally seen as an indication that the Fed is not inclined to raise rates in the near future. Economic data over the past few months have indicated that inflation is slowing, according to the September 19-20 meeting minutes. Policymakers added that more evidence of inflation slowing to the Fed’s 2% target is needed to be confident that inflation will slow to the Fed’s 2% target. Officials generally acknowledged that the risks to Fed policy are increasingly balanced between raising rates too high, which hurts the economy, and not raising them enough to contain inflation.

Late Tuesday, San Francisco Fed spokeswoman Daly said that tighter financial conditions could mean the Fed wouldn’t have to do as much in terms of interest rates. Also on Wednesday, Fed spokesman Waller said that the Fed finally got a very good hold on inflation and can now take an observational stance.

The US PPI for September rose by 0.5% m/m and 2.2% y/y, which was stronger than expectations of 0.2% m/m and 1.6% y/y. In addition, the Food & Energy Price Index rose by 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of 0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y.

The European currency retreated from its best levels amid dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representative and Bundesbank President Nagel, who said a pause could be an option for the ECB at its next policy meeting later this month.

WTI crude oil and gasoline prices fell sharply on Wednesday amid early signs that the war between Israel and Hamas will have a limited impact on oil flows in the Middle East. In addition, Wednesday’s US producer price index report came in stronger than expected, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates longer, which could dampen economic growth and energy demand.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.29% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive by 0.68%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped by 1.8% on Thursday thanks to a 3% rise in banking stocks after China’s state fund Central Huijin Investment increased stakes in four major banks.

Japan’s September machine tool orders fell by 11.2% y/y, the ninth consecutive decline.