Analysts forecast a significant euro rise by the year’s end. Inflation in China returned to positive dynamics

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22% (0.86% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14% (1.61% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.09% on Friday (2.61% for the week). Strengthening crude oil prices on Friday boosted energy stocks and the broader market. Stocks also received support as the likelihood grew regarding a pause in Fed rate hikes amid comments from Dallas FRB Governor Lorie Logan, who stated the following: “Another pass at raising interest rates may be appropriate at the FOMC meeting later this month.” Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 7% and a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 48%.

Friday’s US economic news was negative for equities after consumer credit rose by $10.399 billion in July, weaker than expectations of $16.000 billion. On Friday, Canadian labor market data was released. In July, the number of employed in the Canadian economy increased by 39.9k, which was above expectations of 18.9k. The unemployment rate remained at 5.5%. A more detailed report showed that overall, Canada’s labor market remains resilient, but imbalances in certain sectors are widening, which could lead to problems in the future.

A draft document prepared by G20 leaders meeting this weekend in India warned that “cascading crises” pose challenges to longterm economic growth and called for coordinated macroeconomic policies to support the global economy. In addition, global economic growth is uneven and below the longterm average as uncertainty about the economic outlook remains high, and the balance of risks tilts to the downside.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.14% (1.03% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.62% (1.25% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.61% (1.27% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.49% (+0.18% for the week).

Berenberg currency analysts believe that the leveling of interest rates in the US and Europe, as well as the declining attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe haven, point to the possibility of a revival of the euro in the coming periods. Excess US government debt combined with potential refinancing difficulties could put downward pressure on dollar strength and give confidence to the euro. By the end of 2023, analysts forecast a significant strengthening of the euro against the dollar to 1.1200.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.58% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 2.10%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative by 1.67%.

HSBC currency strategists revised downward their forecasts for the Australian (AUD) and New Zealand (NZD) dollars against the US dollar (USD). Firstly, they assume that AUD and NZD will experience a weakening trend before stabilizing in the second quarter of 2024, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD rates reaching 0.62 and 0.55, respectively, by the end of the first half of 2024.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said over the weekend that the central bank may end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is reached, indicating a possible interest rate hike. Ueda said the central bank may have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can end negative rates. Currently, the BoJ is targeting shortterm interest rates at 0.1% as part of its negative rate policy. In addition, 10year government bond yields are at zero as part of efforts to revitalize the economy and sustainably meet targets.

Consumer prices in China returned to positive momentum in August, while the decline in factory prices slowed. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% yearonyear in August, slower than the median estimate of a 0.2% increase. The CPI declined by 0.3% in July. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, was unchanged at 0.8% in August. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.0% from a year earlier, which was in line with expectations, after falling by 4.4% in July. According to analysts, overall, rate inflation still points to weak demand and requires more active policy support from the government.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,457.49 +6.35 (+0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,576.59 +75.86 (+0.22%)

DAX (DE40)  15,740.30 +21.64 (+0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,478.19 +36.47 (+0.49%)

USD Index  105.07 +0.01 (+0.01%)

by JustMarkets, 2023.09.11