This week, investors’ main focus will be inflation data in Canada, Japan, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. Also, the attention of the trading community is now focused on cryptocurrencies, which received a growth booster after the election of Trump as president. Once a cryptocurrency skeptic, Donald Trump promised to create a national Bitcoin reserve and make the US a global hub for the industry. Still, it’s unclear how feasible his promises are and the timeline. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will hold monetary policy meetings where there could be surprises. Investors were disappointed by the lack of bolder initiatives from the National People’s Congress last week.
Monday, November 18
The trading week will start with the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan. Traders will look for clues about BoJ’s plans to raise rates further. Hints on the continuation of policy normalization will contribute to strengthening the Japanese yen. Also, on Monday, it is worth paying attention to the speech of ECB head Lagarde. But most likely be without surprises, hence, low impact on the euro movement.
Main events of the day:
- Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 03:05 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Trade Balance at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, November 19
Inflation data is expected to be the same as in September. This may have a less significant effect on the Canadian dollar. However, any surprise in the form of lower inflation will put pressure on the CAD because, against the background of lower oil prices, it will increase the probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the December 12 meeting. Also worth watching on Tuesday is the final Eurozone inflation data. It is also expected to be unchanged compared to the previous month.
Main events of the day:
- Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 12:15 (GMT+2);
- Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, November 20
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. It is expected to be unchanged, but any surprise in the form of a rate cut or additional stimulus will support Chinese indices CHA50 and HK50. The UK inflation report awaits us at the opening of Europe. UK inflation is expected to rise from 1.7% to 2.2% annually, which may support the British currency, as it will minimize speculation about the December BOE rate cut.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
- UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Thursday, November 21
Thursday will be a relatively quiet day in terms of economic events. At the Asian session, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of the heads of the RBA and BoJ. Before America opens, the weekly jobless claims report will be published. As a rule, the growth of this indicator hurts the US dollar because the weakening of the labor market will increase the probability of additional rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
Main events of the day:
- Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 07:10 (GMT+2);
- Australia RBA Bullock Speech at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, November 22
On Friday, investors’ focus will be on Japan’s inflation data. The last Tokyo Consumer Price Index showed a decrease in inflation. Given that the Tokyo CPI is a leading indicator, it is expected that the overall inflation rate will also show a decrease. The figure is expected to decline from 2.4% to 2.2% y/y. This could further pressure the Japanese Yen as the Bank of Japan seeks to stoke inflation by raising interest rates to neutral. Also, business activity data for various key economies will be released on Friday. As a rule, this data indicates the health of the manufacturing and service sectors. The strengthening of the national currency often accompanies the growth of these indicators.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan National Core CPI at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- German GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:40 (GMT+2);
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.