This week will be less eventful than the previous one. The main event will be the CPI data (inflation rate) in the United States. Analysts forecast a slowdown in inflation year on year from 8.5% to 8.1%. If the data is worse than expected, the stock market may react negatively. On Wednesday, China will also release inflation data, which will show the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the world’s second-largest economy. Investors should also focus on the speeches of the Fed and the ECB officials. It should also be noted that financial markets are now very sensitive to news about the war in Ukraine and the situation in the oil market.
Monday, May 9
On Monday, investors should pay attention to the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the Bank of Japan. No surprises are expected, the Bank of Japan is pursuing an ultra-soft policy, but volatility in currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 10
On Tuesday, traders will focus mainly on EU reports from the ZEW Economic Institute. The ZEW index is now at its lowest level since the pandemic began, and economists believe the index will fall even lower. Traders should also focus on the speeches of the US FOMC official.
Main events of the day:
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 14:40 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 11
On Wednesday, the main event will be inflation data from China, Germany, and United States. Economists forecast annual inflation in the US at 8.1%. But if the data is worse than expected, it could scare investors as more aggressive tightening by the Fed could trigger a recession in the economy. China’s inflation data is expected to show that goods shortages have led to higher prices, while factory inflation is also expected to remain elevated. Investors should also closely monitor ECB President Lagarde’s Speech and the US Crude Oil Reserves, which significantly impact oil prices.
Main events of the day:
- US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 12
On Thursday, the UK will publish the GDP data for the last quarter. Analysts forecast growth of 1% in the first quarter, but monthly figures for March are expected to be flat. At the same time, the level of Industrial and Manufacturing production is expected to decrease. Investors should also pay attention to natural gas storage data. The energy embargo on Russia has sharply increased energy prices, so lower inventory data will add to the already large deficit.
Main events of the day:
- New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- UK GDP (m/m, q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 13
Friday’s main event to watch is the inflation data in EU countries. Analysts expect that the inflation rate will remain at about the same level. Several ECB and FOMC officials are due to speak during the day.
Main events of the day:
- Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.