The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.03.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0790
• Prev. Close: 1.0785
• % chg. over the last day: -0.05 %

As expected, the ECB lowered three key interest rates by 25 basis points, cutting the deposit rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%. The ECB recognized that monetary policy is becoming much less restrictive, easing the cost of borrowing for businesses and households. Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. Economic growth forecasts have been revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0677, 1.0602, 1.0561, 1.0466
• Resistance levels: 1.0825

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro reached the resistance level of 1.0825, where the partial fixation of previously opened purchases began. It can be seen that the upward momentum is fading. On the background of MACD divergence formation, we can consider selling from 1.0825, but with a small risk, as the deal is against the trend. For buying, it is better to consider EMA lines or support level 1.0677.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.0389 and consolidates below it, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2893
• Prev. Close: 1.2881
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09 %

S&P Global’s UK Construction PMI fell to 44.6 in February 2025 from 48.1 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 49.5. The latest data showed a sharp decline in overall construction activity, the sharpest drop since May 2020, driven by weak demand, higher borrowing costs, and a shortage of new projects to replace completed ones.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2811, 1.2768, 1.2704, 1.2645
• Resistance levels: 1.2932

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency is bullish. The British pound continues to strengthen. However, the indicators are overheated, which means that a technical correction is coming. For selling, we can consider 1.2932, but with a small risk. It is better to consider EMA lines or support level 1.2811 for buying, but also with confirmation in the form of price reaction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2582 and consolidates below it, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 148.88
• Prev. Close: 147.98
• % chg. over the last day: -0.60 %

On Friday, the economy minister said that Japan will officially declare the end of long-term deflation, marking a significant shift in the government’s economic stance that could help determine the timing of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next interest rate hike. Akazawa emphasized that all four key indicators used to assess deflation – consumer prices, GDP deflator, and unit labor costs – have turned positive. He emphasized the importance of further coordination between the Bank of Japan and the government to keep inflation above 2%. Some analysts believe an official end to deflation may strengthen the administration’s political position ahead of the upper house elections in July.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 147.32
• Resistance levels: 149.24, 150.16, 151.29, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. However, the divergence on the MACD indicates a possible technical correction. Currently, the price will seek to test the liquidity below 147.32. Inside the day, we can look for buying from this level, but with confirmation in the form of reaction of the buying side. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

If the price breaks above the resistance at 151.29, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2919
• Prev. Close: 2911
• % chg. over the last day: -0.27 %

Gold traded near the $2,900 per ounce mark on Friday, seeking a week-long rally, helped by its appeal as a safe-haven currency amid changes in global trade policy. While President Donald Trump suspended the 25 percent tariffs imposed this week on most goods from Canada and Mexico, Canada’s initial retaliatory tariffs remain, and China’s measures will take effect next week.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2894, 2859, 2833
• Resistance levels: 2930, 2940, 2944

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish, but fundamental conditions for further growth are forming. Gold is now forming a broadly volatile corridor with the boundaries of 2894-2930. After yesterday’s test of the lower boundary, the price will seek to test the upper boundary of the flat. Therefore, intraday, we can look for a purchase with a target of up to 2930. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance at 2945, the uptrend is likely to resume.