The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.03.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0624
• Prev. Close: 1.0790
• % chg. over the last day: +1.56 %

The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The ECB meeting is expected to end with another 25bp rate cut, bringing the policy rate to 2.5%, 150bp below last year’s peak. However, since this scenario is already priced in, investors’ main interest lies in how the ECB will proceed. Economists believe interest rates will be cut more than financial markets currently assume, mainly due to new geopolitical and tariff shocks. The euro could come under pressure if Lagarde announces further rate cuts at the next meetings.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0677, 1.0602, 1.0561, 1.0466
• Resistance levels: 1.0825

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro continues to strengthen steadily, breaking through all resistance levels without significant pullbacks. However, we can see that the movement is starting to fizzle out. On the background of MACD divergence formation, we can consider selling from 1.0825, but with minimal risk, as the deal is against the trend. For buying, it is best to consider EMA lines or support level 1.0677.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.0389 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2791
• Prev. Close: 1.2891
• % chg. over the last day: +0.80 %

The British pound rose above $1.28, the highest since November 12, thanks to a weaker US dollar amid concerns about the state of the US economy and the impact of upcoming tariffs. Sterling also benefited from expectations that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer, with traders cutting bets on a Bank of England rate cut to 52 basis points for 2025. Additionally, the pound is seen as less exposed to US tariffs after Trump proposed a potential trade deal with the UK that would avoid new duties.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2811, 1.2768, 1.2704, 1.2645
• Resistance levels: 1.2932

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to an upward trend. The British pound, as well as the euro, is confidently strengthening without any special pullbacks. Indicators are overheated, which means that a technical correction is coming. For selling, we can consider 1.2932, but with minimal risks. For buying, it is better to consider EMA lines or support level 1.2932, but also with confirmation in the form of price reaction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2582 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.73
• Prev. Close: 148.88
• % chg. over the last day: -0.57 %

The Japanese yen traded near 148.50 per dollar on Thursday, remaining near its strongest level in five months. The currency benefited from general weakness in the dollar, which has come under pressure from a strengthening euro and the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida said this week that the Central Bank may continue to raise interest rates if its economic expectations hold true, underscoring that the exit from its extensive monetary easing program is just beginning.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.09, 147.32
• Resistance levels: 149.24, 150.16, 151.29, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen has returned to growth. Currently, the price will seek to test the liquidity below 148.09. Inside the day, you can look for sales with a target to this level. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 151.29, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2917
• Prev. Close: 2920
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10 %

The gold price held near record highs at $2920 per ounce on Thursday, supported by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demand amid US trade policy uncertainty. President Donald Trump temporarily exempted US automakers from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month and signaled he was open to further adjustments. However, new US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have sparked retaliation, with China filing a revised request for consultations at the WTO over the duties. Meanwhile, markets await the non-farm payrolls report for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2894, 2859, 2833
• Resistance levels: 2930, 2940, 2944

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish, but fundamental conditions for further growth are forming. The most optimal entry level for buying is the support level of 2894. Currently, the price has approached the resistance level of 2930, above which a lot of liquidity is formed. Given the MACD divergence, gold could decline sharply from this level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance at 2945, the uptrend will likely resume.