The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.03.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0404
• Prev. Close: 1.0487
• % chg. over the last day: +0.80 %

Yesterday, the euro rose to 1.05 USD as news of a possible increase in Eurozone defense spending boosted sentiment. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday that Britain and France will lead a “coalition of the willing” to work with Kyiv and allies to develop a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war and provide security guarantees. Germany could play a key role in boosting defense spending: new special funds for defense and infrastructure have been reported.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0423, 1.0390, 1.0360
• Resistance levels: 1.0490, 1.0529, 1.0539

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish, but it is close to change. On Monday, the euro rose sharply on the back of a potential peace plan on Ukraine. The price reached the level of priority shift and formed a flat. The reaction of sellers is weak, so we should expect further growth. For buying, moving averages can be considered, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.0490 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2582
• Prev. Close: 1.2701
• % chg. over the last day: +0.94 %

The British pound strengthened to $1.27, the strongest since December 17, amid rising optimism around a potential peace plan on Ukraine led by European leaders. Prime Minister Starmer announced a $2 billion deal to supply Ukraine with 5,000 air defense missiles, boosting support in the UK. Sterling also strengthened on expectations that UK interest rates will remain elevated for a long time to come. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden emphasized that continued wage pressures could keep inflation above target, although he noted that future rate cuts may not be gradual.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2673, 1.2613, 1.2582
• Resistance levels: 1.2729

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to an upward trend. The British pound has consolidated above the priority change level and is trading above the moving averages. The price is now aiming to test liquidity above 1.2729, so intraday it is worth focusing on buying. The support level at 1.2673 is a great place for opening longs. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2582 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 150.69
• Prev. Close: 149.50
• % chg. over the last day: -0.79 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 149 per dollar on Tuesday, nearing a five-month high, as demand for safe-haven assets rose amid growing concerns over tariff risks. US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada took effect today, along with an additional 10% duties on Chinese goods. The yen also rose against the dollar as softening US economic data reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Recent data showed that Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 2.5% in January from 2.4% in December, and capital spending by Japanese companies showed an unexpected decline in the fourth quarter.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.86, 148.28, 147.32
• Resistance levels: 149.63, 150.38, 151.29, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price failed to consolidate above the priority change level. After testing the liquidity above last week’s high, the price reversed sharply. Currently, the grabbed liquidity is being distributed lower. For selling, we can consider the EMA lines or the resistance level at 149.63. For buying, there are no optimal entry points right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 151.29, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2861
• Prev. Close: 2893
• % chg. over the last day: +1.11 %

Gold is holding steady around the $2,880 per ounce mark on Tuesday. Investors are assessing the economic outlook as US President Donald Trump prepares to impose tariffs against key trading partners. On Monday, Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will take effect later today, and will double duties on China to 20%. He also confirmed that retaliatory tariffs on countries that impose duties on US products will go into effect on April 2. This reignited fears of a global trade war, which has already shown signs of rising inflation and slowing economic growth — both of which support gold’s status as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2859, 2833
• Resistance levels: 2898, 2930, 2940, 2944

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. However, now, gold got fundamental support due to the introduction of tariffs, which essentially means the beginning of trade wars. For buying, the most optimal entry level is 2859. The price, though, may not give such a pullback and continue to rise from the EMA lines. Selling can also be considered if the price reacts to the resistance zone above 2898.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance at 2945, the uptrend will likely resume.