The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.03.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0397
• Prev. Close: 1.0375
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

The euro rose to around $1.04, recovering from three consecutive sessions of losses, mainly due to renewed optimism about Europe’s important role in a new diplomatic initiative to bring peace to Ukraine. Over the weekend, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that European leaders had agreed to prepare a peace proposal to present to the US. The development comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky failed to reach an agreement with US President Donald Trump during their meeting in the Oval Office. Meanwhile, investors are keeping a close eye on this week’s European Central Bank meeting. The rate is expected to be cut by 25 bps after a similar cut in January 2025.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0375, 1.0317
• Resistance levels: 1.0420, 1.0442, 1.0490, 1.0529, 1.0539

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. On Monday, the euro opened gaps upwards. Currently, the price is trading on the EMA lines, with the intermediate resistance level at 1.0420 keeping the price from rising. Most likely, the price will try to close the price gap. Under such market conditions, it is recommended to look for selling from the EMA lines, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ reaction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.0490 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2597
• Prev. Close: 1.2578
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15 %

The British pound sterling was trading at $1.26 on Friday, just below a more than two-month high. The pound is supported by expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates less aggressively than other central banks. Markets estimate the Bank of England’s rate cut for 2025 at 59 basis points. Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, speaking in South Africa, noted the uncertainty in the UK labor market and global risks. While he remained cautious about rapid policy easing, he recognized the need for flexibility, saying the pace of rate cuts could “accelerate” if conditions warranted.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2563, 1.2553
• Resistance levels: 1.2613, 1.2645, 1.2689

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The British pound has consolidated below the priority change level and is trading below the moving averages. On Friday, the price reached the support level of 1.2563, where some fixation of earlier open sales was observed. However, the price will likely continue to decline as the level is not a key one. Selling can be considered from EMA lines with a target of 1.2549. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2689 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.81
• Prev. Close: 150.60
• % chg. over the last day: +0.52 %

The Japanese yen rose to around 150.3 per dollar on Monday, reversing a two-day decline as the US dollar lost ground against other major currencies. This was helped by a stronger euro, driven by renewed optimism about a possible resolution to the war in Ukraine. The dollar also declined after the US Commerce Secretary said on Sunday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still “rolling”,  suggesting they could be lower than the proposed 25%. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep raising interest rates this year as trends in the economy, prices, and wages continue to support the Central Bank’s efforts to normalize policy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 150.21,149.09, 148.86, 148.28, 147.32
• Resistance levels: 150.74, 151.50, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish, but it is close to change. The price seeks to break through the priority change level at 150.74. Buying can be considered from the support level of 150.21 but with additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ reaction. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 150.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2877
• Prev. Close: 2859
• % chg. over the last day: -0.63 %

Gold rose above $2,860 per ounce on Monday as concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy sparked inflows into bullion. Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods that will take effect on March 4, as well as additional 10 percent duties on Chinese goods, have raised fears of possible retaliation and broader trade tensions. The inflationary impact of these measures also supports gold, which is often seen as a hedge against rising prices.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2854, 2828
• Resistance levels: 2866, 2898, 2930, 2940, 2944

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. On Friday, the price reached the support level of 2854 and went even lower. At Monday’s opening, investors and traders started actively buying gold back. Buying should be considered if the price breaks the descending channel and consolidates above 2866. In such a scenario, the way to 2898 will be opened. However, until this happens, intraday sales from EMA lines will be better, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance at 2945, the uptrend will likely resume.