The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0466
• Prev. Close: 1.0513
• % chg. over the last day: +0.44 %

In Europe, investors were analyzing key speeches of European Central Bank officials ahead of next week’s meeting, where the ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the fifth consecutive time. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said further rate cuts are not ruled out if inflation continues to fall towards the 2% target. However, his counterpart Isabel Schnabel told the Financial Times that the ECB is close to the point where it may have to pause or stop cutting rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0485, 1.0449, 1.0409
• Resistance levels: 1.0485, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro consolidated above 1.0485, which opened the price way up to 1.0537. Buy trades can be sought from 1.0485 or from 1.0460. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0409 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2626
• Prev. Close: 1.2669
• % chg. over the last day: +0.34 %

The British pound traded near $1.264, slightly below the 10-week high, amid rising expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra defended her call for a larger rate cut, arguing that even gradual easing would lead to continued restrictive policy and continue to weigh on the economy. She cited weak consumer spending, low inflationary pressures, and a cooling labor market despite wage growth. Her dovish stance has led traders to raise their bets on a Bank of England rate cut, and they now estimate a rate easing this year at around 56 basis points, equivalent to two quarter-point rate cuts. Markets expect the first-rate cut to occur in June, with a second rate cut likely by November.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2632, 1.2581, 1.2553
• Resistance levels: 1.2677, 1.2704

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound is forming a flat accumulation between the levels of 1.2632-1.2677. Traders are best to wait for the price to leave the accumulation. A price consolidation above 1.2677 will open the way for the price to 1.2704. A price consolidation below 1.2632 will open the price path to 1.2581. The current intraday bias is bullish.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2577 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.67
• Prev. Close: 149.03
• % chg. over the last day: -0.42 %

The Japanese yen fell to 149.5 per dollar on Wednesday, retreating from the four-and-a-half-month high reached in the previous session. Despite the pullback, the yen remained near multi-month highs, helped by strong expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year after an unexpected rise in inflation in the fourth quarter. Investors are currently focused on a series of key economic reports due to be released on Friday, including industrial production, retail sales, and inflation data in Tokyo, which could provide further clarity on the Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.86
• Resistance levels: 149.90, 150.31, 150.75, 151.50, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price reached the support level of 148.86, where some fixation of earlier open sales took place. Currently, the captured liquidity is distributing up to 149.90, where it is possible to look for sales if sellers react. Buying can be looked for intraday, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 150.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2952
• Prev. Close: 2915
• % chg. over the last day: -1.27 %

Gold hovered around $2,910 per ounce on Wednesday, extending its recent decline and holding near the weekly low as investors locked in profits. Nevertheless, the metal maintained its upward trend amid lingering concerns over President Trump’s tariff plans and foreign policy. On Tuesday, Trump signed an executive order to review potential tariffs on copper after he confirmed the imposition of duties on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2935, 2923, 2907
• Resistance levels: 2954, 3000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. However, there are signs of reversal of the medium-term trend. Yesterday, gold corrected sharply to the priority change level, where buyers stepped up. Whether it was new purchases or closing sales through purchases — we will find out in the coming days. At the moment, the intraday bias remains with the sellers, but the price may flatten after the sell-off. Overall, there are no optimal entry points for gold right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2892, the downtrend will likely resume.