The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0496
• Prev. Close: 1.0462
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32 %

The Dollar Index fell 0.4% to an 11-week low as the euro surged to a one-month high after the conservatives won the German general election. Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s conservative opposition, is expected to form a coalition government that aims to implement fiscal reforms. Strong and clear leadership is seen as essential to push forward much-needed fiscal reforms, especially as Germany faces economic stagnation, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and trade tensions caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0475, 1.0449, 1.0409
• Resistance levels: 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The European currency opened with a gap up on the back of the election of a new German Chancellor this weekend. The euro is expected to continue strengthening. However, since the price has now deviated strongly from the moving lines and the MACD indicator is signaling a divergence, we should wait for a small pullback. Buy trades can be considered from the EMA lines, or from the support level of 1.0475. The profit target is 1.0537. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0409 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2666
• Prev. Close: 1.2632
• % chg. over the last day: -0.26 %

The British pound is holding near $1.26, hitting a two-month high, as recent data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a cautious approach to rate cuts. Retail sales unexpectedly rose by 1.7% thanks to strong demand for food. As a result, money markets now expect only two rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, bringing interest rates down to just 4%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2631, 1.2577, 1.2553
• Resistance levels: 1.2670, 1.2707

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound reached the resistance level of 1.2670, where partial fixation of profits is observed. Together with the MACD divergence, the price may correct here once again. However, the bias remains for the bulls. Intraday, we can consider buying from EMA lines or from the 1.2631 support level with a target of 1.2707.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2452 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.62
• Prev. Close: 149.30
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

The Japanese yen traded around 149.3 per dollar on Monday, holding at 12-week highs as domestic markets were closed due to a public holiday. The yen rose sharply last week on stronger-than-expected Japanese inflation data, which reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. BOJ officials also signaled their intention to adjust policy if economic conditions continue to develop as expected.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.91
• Resistance levels: 150.75, 151.50, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen reached the support level of 148.91, where the buyers took the initiative. Currently, the price has corrected to the EMA lines, but there is no sellers’ reaction, which increases the probability of further correction. However, since today is a bank holiday in Japan, the volatility is expected to be weak and the price is likely to flatten at the moving averages.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 152.31, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2938
• Prev. Close: 2936
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

Gold rose to $2,940 per ounce on Monday, near all-time highs, helped by strong demand for safe-haven metals. The precious metal continued to find support amid growing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could escalate global trade tensions. On the economic front, reports of a slowdown in US business activity and a decline in consumer confidence emerged on Friday, further increasing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2932, 2865, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2942, 2954, 3000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold is forming a flat accumulation with the boundaries of 2923-2942. Buying should be sought from the lower flat boundary, but only with confirmation, as MACD divergence on higher time frames indicates a deeper correction in gold. In case of a breakout of 2942, the way to 2954 and higher will be opened for the price.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2877, the downtrend will likely resume.