The EUR/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.0420
- Prev. Close: 1.0501
- % chg. over the last day: +0.78 %
The Eurozone Consumer Confidence indicator rose by 0.6 points to negative 13.6 in February 2025, the highest in four months and beating market expectations of 14, according to preliminary estimates. Consumers remain optimistic that the European Central Bank will continue to cut rates this year. The European Central Bank is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 bps at each of its next three meetings, bringing it to 2.75%. Eurozone projections are increasingly pointing to rates falling below 2% by 2026.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.0485, 1.0464, 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
- Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0537
The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The European currency returned to growth. The price managed to consolidate above the moving average lines and additionally formed 2 intermediate support levels — 1.0485 and 1.0464. These levels can be used to open buy trades with a target up to 1.0537. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks the support level of 1.0373 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2025.02.21
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.2579
- Prev. Close: 1.2579
- % chg. over the last day: +0.71 %
The GfK UK Consumer Confidence Index for February 2025 rose by 2 points to negative 20, indicating a slight improvement as households expressed more optimism about their finances and the broader economic outlook. However, concerns remain about sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation, potentially leading to stagflation. Recent data showed that the UK economy came to a near standstill in the second half of 2024, with inflation unexpectedly rising to a ten-month high of 3% in January.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.2632, 1.2555, 1.2480, 1.2396, 1.2335
- Resistance levels: 1.2667
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound reached the resistance level of 1.2667, where partial fixation of profits is observed. Together with the MACD divergence, the price may be correct here, so it is not recommended to open buy deals here. Intraday sales can be considered with a target of up to 1.2632, but with a short stop loss, as this will be a counter-trend trade.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks the support level of 1.2452 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2025.02.21
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 151.43
- Prev. Close: 149.67
- % chg. over the last day: -1.17 %
The Japanese yen fell to 150.50 per dollar on Friday, retreating from 11-week highs, even as better-than-expected inflation data reinforced the case for a hawkish view on the BoJ’s monetary policy. The data showed Japan’s core inflation rose to 3.2% in January from 3% in December, beating expectations of 3.1%. Core inflation also rose to 4% from 3.6%, the highest in two years. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that in the long run, higher interest rates will boost profits for financial institutions.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 149.42
- Resistance levels: 150.76, 151.25, 152.32, 153.59, 154.33, 155.04, 155.52
From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen reached the support level of 149.42, where buyers showed a sharp initiative. Then the price corrected to 150.76, but there was no reaction from sellers, which increases the probability of further correction to 151.25, where we can consider new sales in continuation of the downtrend.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks above the resistance at 152.31, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2025.02.21
- Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 2936
- Prev. Close: 2938
- % chg. over the last day: +0.06 %
Gold is growing amid rising geopolitical risks. US President Trump may withdraw US support for Ukraine during talks with Russia, which could put Kyiv and its European allies in a stalemate. At the same time, the latest data shows that gold exports from Switzerland rose year-on-year in January, while shipments to the US reached the highest level in 13 years.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 2932, 2865, 2807
- Resistance levels: 2950, 3000
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold is forming a flat accumulation with the boundaries of 2932-2950. Buying should be sought from the lower flat boundary, but only with confirmation, as the MACD divergence on higher time frames indicates a deeper correction in gold. In case of a breakdown of 2932, the way to 2906 will be opened for the price.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks below the support level of 2877, the downtrend will likely resume.
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This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.