The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0443
• Prev. Close: 1.0421
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

The euro traded near $1.043 as traders weighed the impact of rising defense spending, US tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. As the US announced plans to cut support for Ukraine and begin negotiations with Russia, excluding both Ukraine and European countries, some European governments met in Paris to discuss alternative support strategies. On the monetary policy side, the ECB is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points at each of its next three meetings, bringing it to 2.75%. Forecasts are increasingly suggesting that rates could fall below 2% by 2026.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
• Resistance levels: 1.0444, 1.0510, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. However, conditions for reversal of the medium-term trend are being created. The euro has consolidated below the resistance level of 1.0444 and confidently trades below the moving averages. If the price is below 1.0444, we should only look for intraday sales with a target of 1.0390. Buying should be considered only if the price regains its footing above 1.0444.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0373 and consolidates below it, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2613
• Prev. Close: 1.2586
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

The British pound hovered around $1.26, near two-month highs, as traders digested key economic data and its implications for monetary policy. The annual inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 3% last month, the highest in ten months, beating forecasts of 2.8%. Meanwhile, services inflation rose to 5%, slightly below the Bank of England’s forecast of 5.2%. With inflation moving further from the 2% target, the data confirmed the Bank of England’s cautious stance on cutting rates. As a result, money markets now expect only two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, bringing interest rates down to 4%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2555, 1.2480, 1.2396, 1.2335
• Resistance levels: 1.2606, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound looks more confident than the euro and resists the growth of the US dollar. However, the sellers’ pressure intraday is significant, with the pound failing to reach the support level. Under such market conditions, we can look for sell deals from 1.2606 to 1.2555. Buying should be considered only after the price consolidates above 1.2606.

Alternative scenario:

 If the price breaks the support level of 1.2452 and consolidates below it, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 151.99
• Prev. Close: 151.46
• % chg. over the last day: -0.35 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 150 per dollar on Thursday, hitting its highest level in two months, as trade and geopolitical uncertainty boosted demand for the safe-haven currency. Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports of automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, renewing fears of an escalating global trade war. Traders await Friday’s inflation data for more clarity on the future rate outlook.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 150.34, 149.42
• Resistance levels: 151.25, 152.32, 153.59, 154.33, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen sharply strengthened on Thursday and reached the support level of 150.34. The reaction of buyers is weak, which increases the probability of further decline. Selling is not recommended here, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages. Buying can be considered as a corrective wave to the EMA, but no more. But for buying, it is necessary to wait for the initiative of the buying side.

Alternative scenario:

If the price breaks above the resistance at 152.31, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2833
• Prev. Close: 2935
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07 %

Gold reached $2950 per ounce on Thursday, hitting an all-time high. Minutes from the January meeting underscored Fed policymakers’ call for more evidence of sustained disinflation while raising concerns that trade policy changes, such as tariff hikes, could add to inflationary pressures. Markets are currently forecasting one cut in the federal funds rate in 2025. Meanwhile, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong amid continued global uncertainty.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2932, 2865, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2950, 3000

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has reached the psychological mark of 2950. There is no seller’s reaction, which increases the probability of further growth. Buying should be done from the EMA lines, which act as dynamic support levels. Despite the MACD divergence, there are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend is likely to resume.