The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0480
• Prev. Close: 1.0445
• % chg. over the last day: -0.36 %

The euro continued to fall to $1.45 as traders weighed the impact of higher defense spending on inflation and interest rates. As the US announced plans to cut support for Ukraine and continue negotiations with Russia to end the war, European governments gathered in Paris to discuss alternative support strategies. However, the informal meeting ended without concrete measures. Strengthening defense and aid to Ukraine could cost Europe’s largest economies $3.1 trillion over the next decade.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0447, 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
• Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro corrected to the support level of 1.0447 and is trading below the moving averages. Intraday, sellers are slowly retaking the initiative. However, the euro has not reached the major target of 1.0537 and another upside wave is very likely. Buying can be considered if the buyers take the initiative and the price consolidates above the moving averages. A price consolidation below 1.0447 will lead to a sell-off to 1.0390.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0373 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2617
• Prev. Close: 1.2612
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

The British pound initially strengthened, but then gave up a bit and settled at $1.26 as traders assessed the mixed labor market report. Wage growth accelerated in the last three months of 2024, rising in real inflation-adjusted terms. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly held steady at 4.4%, although vacancies and manufacturing employment fell. The data confirmed the Bank of England’s cautious approach to rate cuts, with Bank Governor Andrew Bailey citing wage growth as the key factor keeping service sector inflation at a high level. Today, traders will turn their attention to the data on the Consumer Price Index and the index of prices for goods and services.

 

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2582, 1.2555, 1.2480, 1.2396, 1.2335
• Resistance levels: 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The intermediate support level of 1.2580 kept the price from further decline, which indicates the strength of the upward movement. The level of 1.2614 does not provide proper resistance, which increases the probability of further growth. Currently, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 1.2667. There are no optimal entry points for selling, as sellers are not active, although the MACD indicator is already signaling divergence.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2452 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

 

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 151.45
• Prev. Close: 152.05
• % chg. over the last day: +0.39 %

The Japanese yen held its recent decline to around 152 per dollar on Thursday as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected economic data. Japan’s core equipment orders, a crucial indicator of capital spending, unexpectedly fell in December. In addition, Japan reported a larger-than-expected trade deficit for January, with imports exceeding exports. Despite this, the yen continues to find support in expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year, although uncertainty remains on whether the Central Bank will raise rates again in March.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.53, 151.27, 150.72
• Resistance levels: 152.32, 153.59, 154.33, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen is starting to form flat accumulation at the levels of moving averages. The price is likely to remain in the range of 151.27-152.32 until the end of the week. This complicates the search for optimal entry points on the current timeframe. Intraday traders should focus on price action.

 

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2898
• Prev. Close: 2933
• % chg. over the last day: +1.21 %

Gold reached $2930 per ounce on Wednesday. On the monetary policy front, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly called inflation progress uneven and emphasized the need to keep rates steady, echoing the Fed’s previous hawkish remarks. On Tuesday, Trump announced plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, heightening fears of new trade wars.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2865, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2910, 2950, 3000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has returned to growth and now seeks to test the resistance level of 2950. The main medium-term target for gold remains at 3000. Buying should be sought from the moving average lines but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

 

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.