The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.18

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0485
• Prev. Close: 1.083
• % chg. over the last day: -0.02 %

French President Emmanuel Macron invited regional leaders including Olaf Scholz from Germany and Giorgia Meloni from Italy to Paris for urgent talks on Ukraine and European security. There are fears that officials will push for more military investment as US peace proposals show a weakening of American support for Ukraine. Strengthening defense and aid to Ukraine could cost Europe’s major economies an additional $3.1 trillion over the next decade. At the same time, the European Central Bank is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 bps at each of its next three meetings, bringing it to 2.75%. Eurozone expectations increasingly point to rates falling below 2% by 2026.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0456, 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
• Resistance levels: 1.0510, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro corrected to the support level of 1.0456. It is possible to look for buy deals here, provided buyers react. The euro has not reached the main target of 1.0537 and another wave of growth is very likely. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0373 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2582
• Prev. Close: 1.2624
• % chg. over the last day: +0.33 %

The British pound rose to $1.26, hitting a two-month high, as investors expect this week’s key economic data to confirm persistent inflationary pressures and slow down interest rate cuts by the UK Central Bank. The Bank of England cut interest rates this month but maintained a cautious stance on inflation. Meanwhile, analysts expect that average earnings accelerated in December and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%.

 

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2582, 1.2555, 1.2480, 1.2396, 1.2335
• Resistance levels: 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound is correcting. The nearest intermediate support level of 1.2580 should be used for buying only in case of buyers’ initiative. The most optimal zone for buying is the area below 1.2555. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

 

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2452 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 152.40
• Prev. Close: 151.50
• % chg. over the last day: -0.59 %

The Japanese yen slid to 151.8 per dollar on Tuesday, breaking a three-day rally as the dollar strengthened after comments from US Federal Reserve officials. They indicated that the Fed was in no hurry to cut interest rates further due to persistent inflation risks. In the medium term, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates, while the US Fed, after a pause, will continue to cut rates. Such a differential will contribute to the decline of USD/JPY in the medium term.

 

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.27, 150.72
• Resistance levels: 152.32, 153.59, 154.33, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The buyers unexpectedly took the initiative from the intermediate support level of 151.27. The price corrected to the EMA lines and now the price is trying to test the liquidity above 152.32. This resistance level can be considered for selling, provided the sellers react. It is important for sellers to hold this level, because if it is broken, the price will open the way to 153.59.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2885
• Prev. Close: 2898
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45 %

Gold climbed above the $2,900 per ounce mark on Tuesday. Fears of a global trade war continue to support bullion. Traders remain concerned that President Donald Trump’s retaliatory tariff plan will escalate global trade tensions, increasing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials are holding back further gains. Fed representatives Bowman and Waller reiterated a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts in the face of persistent inflation.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2865, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2910, 2950, 3000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. As expected, gold started to form a flat accumulation. At the moment, the price is trading in the supply zone. If sellers react here, gold may correct to 2865. However, if the price firmly consolidates above the resistance level of 2910, gold will return to rally.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.