The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0463
• Prev. Close: 1.0491
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27 %

The ECB is expected to cut rates at least two more times before the Federal Reserve cuts rates again. This divergence in policy will have a negative impact on the euro. In addition, Europe still does not seem ready to respond to the powerful challenges posed by Russia, China, and now the US. France and Germany have proposed sending troops to Greenland, and even if their purpose is unclear, this is not related to Russian aggression or Chinese diplomacy, but it is clearly a response to the threat from the US. Peace talks between the US and Russia seem to be shifting more of the burden to Europe, and many suspect that, combined with increased defense spending, this will lead to an increase in the supply of long-term European debt.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0456, 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
• Resistance levels: 1.0515, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has reached the resistance level of 1.0515. The reaction of sellers is moderate, which looks like fixation of previously opened longs. A divergence is forming on the MACD indicator, which could potentially lead to a corrective movement. Selling can be considered intraday up to 1.0456 and with a short stop loss. However, it should be remembered that the euro has not reached the main target of 1.0537 and another wave of growth is very likely.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0373 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2556
• Prev. Close: 1.2585
• % chg. over the last day: +0.23 %

The UK has a busy economic calendar this week. Some important reports for the market include the latest employment data, January CPI, retail sales, and the flash PMI for February. Given the current situation in the economy, a rate cut at the next meeting on March 20, unless there is a significant surprise, remains unlikely. This means that the Bank of England will have more data before its meeting in early May. The swaps market is confident that there will be another rate cut then.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2555, 1.2480, 1.2396, 1.2335
• Resistance levels: 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price has reached the resistance level of 1.2614. The reaction of sellers is moderate, which looks like fixation of previously opened longs. A divergence is forming on the MACD indicator, which could potentially lead to a corrective movement. Inside the day, we can look for selling up to 1.2555, but with short targets. Buying should be considered from 1.2555 but with confirmation in the form of a new initiative of buyers.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2335 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

 

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 152.81
• Prev. Close: 152.30
• % chg. over the last day: -0.33 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 152 per dollar on Monday, marking the third straight session of gains as investors reacted to strong economic growth data. Japan’s economy grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, accelerating from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter and beating the prognoses of 0.3%. On an annualized basis, Japan’s GDP grew 2.8% in Q4, in line with expectations and above the 1.7% growth in Q3. The positive data confirms the hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. However, it is worth noting that the next rate hike is not expected until summer.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.62, 151.12
• Resistance levels: 152.32, 153.59, 154.33, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price declined to the support level of 151.62, but the reaction of buyers is weak, which increases the probability of further decline. However, it is not recommended to sell here, as the price has deviated strongly from the EMA lines. For selling, it is better to use the resistance level 152.32 or moving averages. Buying can be considered from 151.62 if buyers show initiative intraday.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2928
• Prev. Close: 2885
• % chg. over the last day: -1.49 %

Gold dipped below $2900 an ounce on Friday after testing record highs of $2940 earlier in the session as markets assessed global security demand and the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. US President Donald Trump said the US will broker ceasefire talks with Moscow over Russia’s war with Ukraine, raising expectations that the conflict could end in the near term, supporting risk assets in Europe. On the other hand, precious metals were supported by the looming threat of a trade war between the US and its major trading partners after President Trump ordered the Commerce Department to raise tariffs and impose retaliatory barriers as he deems necessary to balance flows.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2865, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2904, 2950, 3000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has corrected once again. It looks like the price will start to form a broadly volatile flat. At the same time, a flat accumulation is also likely to form intraday, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. At this point inside the day, it is better to focus on selling from 2904, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.