The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0306
• Prev. Close: 1.0361
• % chg. over the last day: +0.53 %

Fed Chairman Powell reiterated in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress that since Fed policy is now much looser and the economy remains strong, there is no urgency to adjust the federal funds rate. The Fed Chairman added that reducing policy restraint too quickly or too much could impede progress in controlling inflation while reducing policy restraint too slowly or too little could unnecessarily dampen economic activity and employment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0272, 1.0239, 1.0178
• Resistance levels: 1.0360, 1.0407

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro failed to reach the support level of 1.0272. The reason for this is probably the SMT divergence that occurred between EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Currently, the price is trading at the resistance level of 1.0360 without any reaction from the sellers, which increases the probability of a breakout and further growth to 1.0407. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be sought after the price consolidates above 1.0360. Sell trades will become relevant if sellers react.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2363
• Prev. Close: 1.2445
• % chg. over the last day: +0.66 %

The British pound rose to USD 1.237, attempting to rebound from a three-week low, as markets adjusted expectations for a rate cut following comments from Bank of England Board of Governors’ representative Catherine Mann. Although Mann voted in favor of a 50bp rate cut at the last meeting, she clarified that this was not a signal of further aggressive easing, but rather a move to “cut through the noise” and improve communication with global markets. She emphasized the need for continued monetary tightening, citing structural challenges in getting inflation back to 2%. As a result, traders have reduced bets on a deeper rate cut and now estimate a rate easing of around 62 bps in 2025.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2421, 1.2335, 1.2270
• Resistance levels: 1.2422, 1.2466, 1.2505

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the British currency reached the support level of 1.2335, where buyers took the initiative, after which the rate jumped sharply. Currently, the price is trading above the moving averages. Intraday, you can look for buying near 1.2422 with a target of 1.2466 and 1.2505. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2335 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 151.95
• Prev. Close: 152.48
• % chg. over the last day: +0.35 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 153 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting a one-week low after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave no clear guidance on the future trajectory of interest rates. In a parliamentary session, responding to a question about withdrawing from Japan’s massive stimulus program, Ueda reiterated that the Central Bank will maintain its monetary policy to achieve a sustainable inflation rate of 2%. In contrast, BOJ board spokesman Tamura suggested last week that the Central Bank may have to raise the discount rate to 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 152.77, 151.12, 148.42
• Resistance levels: 154.33, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price has consolidated above the resistance level of 152.77. This opened the price way up to 154.39. It is worth looking for buy trades inside the day, but it should be noted that the price has now deviated strongly from the moving averages, which makes the point for buying not optimal. The 152.77 level can now be used as a support level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2907
• Prev. Close: 2897
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34 %

Gold dipped below $2900 per ounce on Wednesday, continuing its retreat after briefly reaching a record high of $2940 in the previous session. The decline followed the Federal Reserve’s announcement that further interest rate cuts are imminent and attention turned to a key US inflation report. Although gold serves as a hedge against inflation, the Fed’s cautious stance has reduced the appeal of bullion, which does not generate income. Nevertheless, gold’s rise continues to be fueled by increased demand for the safe-haven currency as President Trump announced a series of aggressive tariff measures and more trade duties are expected, raising fears of a trade war.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2871, 2834, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, gold corrected to the moving average lines and flattened. At the moment it looks like profit-taking or a technical correction. The nearest support level to look for buy trades is 2871. Going below this level is undesirable for buyers. Otherwise, it will greatly increase the probability of a trend change, as the price will open the way to 2834.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.