The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0382
• Prev. Close: 1.0327
• % chg. over the last day: -0.53 %

The euro declined to around 1.03 USD under pressure from the strengthening US dollar after President Donald Trump announced new global tariffs on steel and aluminum over the weekend. The move further weighed on the currency amid expectations of a widening interest rate gap between the US and Europe, driven by strong US jobs data that supports the Fed’s decision to hold rates, in contrast to the ECB’s recent rate cut and signal of further easing in March.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0272, 1.0239, 1.0178
• Resistance levels: 1.0332, 1.0373, 1.0433

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has consolidated below the support level of 1.0332, which opens the way to 1.0272. Currently, it is important to evaluate the price reaction to the broken level of 1.0332. If sellers will react here, we can look for sells with a target of 1.0272. If the buyers are able to push the price back above 1.0332, we can look for buy trades with a target of 1.0373.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2431
• Prev. Close: 1.2401
• % chg. over the last day: -0.24 %

The British pound sterling settled at $1.243 after the Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.5% and cut its economic growth estimates for the year to 0.75%, half of the previous estimate. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey urged investors not to overanalyze policymakers’ move to cut rates more deeply, but markets were still left in uncertainty. The Bank of England also raised its inflation projection to 3.7% — well above the previous estimate of 2.8%, highlighting the difficulty of balancing rate cuts with ongoing pressure on prices. Given the three rate cuts since August, traders still expect about 60 basis points more easing this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2383, 1.2335, 1.2270
• Resistance levels: 1.2468, 1.2505

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. A so-called SMT divergence has formed between the pound and the euro. This is when one instrument updates a price low or high, while the other instrument does not. In most cases, this leads to a reversal of the price movement. For buying, you can use the support level of 1.2383 or buy after the price consolidates above the moving average lines. There are no optimal entry points for selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2335 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 151.37
• Prev. Close: 151.42
• % chg. over the last day: +0.03 %

The Japanese yen fell to around 152 per dollar on Monday, retreating from nearly two-month highs as the dollar strengthened after US President Donald Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports that will take effect today. These developments have heightened concerns about inflation, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the yen gained more than 2% last week amid strong expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates this year. On Thursday, BOJ board member Tamura said the Central Bank should raise the discount rate to at least 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.12, 148.42
• Resistance levels: 152.77, 154.39, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Last week the price declined to the support level of 151.12, where the buyers took the initiative. There is a strong demand zone here, which has already pushed the price twice. The nearest resistance zone is at 152.77. Given the MACD divergence, this increases the probability of a corrective move. Intraday buying can be considered with a target up to 152.77. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2856
• Prev. Close: 2861
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17 %

Gold rose above $2,870 an ounce on Monday, hitting record highs, driven by demand for the safe-haven currency after US President Donald Trump announced new 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, adding to trade war fears. The move is in addition to existing duties on metals as part of his trade policy review. Meanwhile, expectations of monetary policy easing by major central banks are rising, with investors expecting two Fed rate cuts in 2024 despite strong labor data, in line with FOMC prognoses. The Bank of England also cut rates last week, taking a softer stance than expected, while the RBI cut rates for the first time since pandemic-related measures nearly five years ago.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2834, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. After a small correction last week, the price continued the bullish trend. At historical highs, we can only focus on round option levels. The nearest such level is 2900. Buying should be sought intraday, as the price makes very small pullbacks on a strong move. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.