The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0241
• Prev. Close: 1.0344
• % chg. over the last day: +1.01 %

The euro trimmed some losses but remained under pressure, trading near $1.03, amid uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff plans for the Eurozone, citing the US trade deficit with Europe, which he called an “atrocity.” Meanwhile, fresh data showed Eurozone inflation rose to 2.5% in January, the highest since July 2024 and above market expectations of 2.4%. Core inflation held steady at 2.7%, defying expectations of a slight decline to 2.6%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0272, 1.0239, 1.0178
• Resistance levels: 1.0342, 1.0381, 1.0433

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has almost closed yesterday’s price gap. Currently, the price is trading at the level of moving averages. Buyers showed a reaction from the support level of 1.0342. Intraday buying conditions have been formed with a target of 1.0381. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2297
• Prev. Close: 1.2449
• % chg. over the last day: +1.23 %

The British pound rose above $1.24 after falling to $1.225 after President Trump agreed with the President of Mexico and Canada to suspend tariffs for a month. However, uncertainty remains over future tariffs. Last week, Trump threatened tariffs on the EU and the UK, heightening investor fears of global trade conflicts. As a result, expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) have increased, with markets now pricing in a 81bps rate cut by December and a 95% probability of a 25bps rate cut to 4.5% this Thursday.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2383, 1.2344, 1.2270
• Resistance levels: 1.2472

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Just like the euro, the British currency has completely closed the price gap. Buyers managed to bring the price back above the Fridays’s closing point, which increases the probability of an upward trend change. The support level of 1.2835 can be considered for buying. The profit target is the level of priority change at 1.2472. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2472 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 154.74
• Prev. Close: 154.75
• % chg. over the last day: +0.01 %

In Japan, investors are focused on Wednesday’s release of wage data, which may affect the outlook for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. The BOJ raised interest rates in January and said it is willing to raise rates further if economic and price trends match projections.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 155.04, 154.39
• Resistance levels: 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Buyers managed to form a demand zone below 155.04 and now this area will protect the price from going down. Intraday, you can look for buying with the target of 155.38, but it should be noted that the price may create a flat structure here. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 156.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2800
• Prev. Close: 2816
• % chg. over the last day: +0.57 %

On Tuesday, gold traded above $2810 per ounce, near the record high reached in the previous session, supported by safe-haven demand amid global trade uncertainty. Markets continued to navigate the impact of US tariffs as President Donald Trump agreed to delay imposing duties on Mexico and Canada for a month after leaders in both countries took steps to address his border security concerns. Tariffs of 10% are still due to be imposed against China today, although Trump has said he will hold more talks with Beijing. The inflationary impact of tariffs could further increase the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against both price pressures and geopolitical risks.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2795
• Resistance levels: 2830, 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold recovered sharply yesterday from the 2772 level and set a new historical maximum. It is unknown where the ceiling of gold is, but the conditions for a correction or reversal are already forming. First, it is the MACD divergence on the higher time frames. Secondly, it is a surge in volumes followed by a bearish reaction. Now, we should expect a correction to the moving averages or to the support level of 2795. If the buyers react here, we can open buy trades.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2772, the downtrend will likely resume.