The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.01.31

EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0419
• Prev. Close: 1.0391
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03 %

The European Central Bank cut key interest rates by 25 bps in January 2025, as expected, lowering the deposit rate to 2.75%. The move reflects the ECB’s updated inflation outlook, which sees price pressures easing in line with expectations. The ECB remains data-driven and does not stick to a predetermined rate path, focusing on a cautious approach to ensure inflation stabilizes at the 2% target.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0372, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• Resistance levels: 1.0414, 1.0467, 1.0516, 1.0537

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. However, intraday the price shows signs of decline. With high probability the price will test the level of priority change at 1.0372. Here, we can look for buying with a target up to 1.0414. The MACD divergence also gives a clue in the form of growth. If the price consolidates below 1.0372, we could see a strong sell-off to 1.0342 and below.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0372 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2444
• Prev. Close: 1.2418
• % chg. over the last day: -0.20 %

According to banking experts, fiscal consolidation in March and lower service inflation in the second quarter should lead the Bank of England to conduct a 100bp easing cycle this year. This is compared to the 68bp of easing that the market is pricing in today. We see no reason to change our year-end estimates for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP at 1.19/20 and 0.85 respectively.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2423, 1.2400, 1.2376, 1.2343, 1.2293, 1.2270,1.2229, 1.2158
• Resistance levels: 1.2465, 1.2494

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The support level at 1.2423 does not show the necessary bullish reaction, which increases the probability of a breakdown and further decline. In this scenario, it is better to consider selling from 1.2441 or 1.2465. The profit target is 1.2377. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.2293 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 155.16
• Prev. Close: 154.21
• % chg. over the last day: -0.61 %

On Thursday, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Ryozo Himino said that the Central Bank plans to continue raising rates if the economy and inflation match expectations. Data released on Friday showed Tokyo core inflation accelerated to an 11-month high of 2.5% in January, reinforcing the BOJ’s hawkish outlook for policy. In addition, retail sales beat expectations, industrial production rebounded and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. 

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 154.39, 153.14
• Resistance levels: 154.93, 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The Japanese yen declined to the resistance level of 154.93. Here, it is important to evaluate the sellers’ reaction to the level. If the sellers take the initiative, we should expect the price to decline to 154.39. It is very important for the sellers not to let the price break the downtrend line. Otherwise, conditions for a change in the medium-term trend will be formed.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 156.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2754
• Prev. Close: 2795
• % chg. over the last day: +1.48 %

On Friday, gold drifted towards the $2,800 per ounce mark, hitting an all-time high, as investors sought safety after US President Donald Trump repeated threats to impose tariffs. His plan has raised fears of trade wars and the prospect of slowing economic growth. Gold was further supported by the loosening of monetary policy by major central banks. The ECB cut rates as expected, leaving room for further cuts, the Bank of England stopped quantitative tightening and Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates earlier in the week. PBoC and RBI also signaled policy easing and increased liquidity.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2790, 2772, 2750, 2735
• Resistance levels: 2800, 2850, 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold is trading at an all-time high. This means that traders should evaluate the price reaction to the psychological round levels, which are also option levels. Price is now forming a flat accumulation, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. There are no optimal entry points for selling now. For buying, we should consider a pullback to 2789 or to the moving averages.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2735, the downtrend will likely resume.