The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.10.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0929
• Prev. Close: 1.0903
• % chg. over the last day: -0.24 %

Stronger than expected US employment and inflation data lowered bets on further significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which keeps pressure on the euro. The ECB is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 bps on Thursday after cutting it in September and June. Traders expect further rate cuts at each meeting through March, reflecting the ECB’s response to slowing inflation, which fell to 1.8% in the Eurozone, the lowest since April 2021.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0884
• Resistance levels: 1.0952, 1.0979, 1.1013, 1.1036, 1.1079, 1.1136, 1.1163

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The sellers managed to sell the support level at 1.0908, and now the price is trying to test the liquidity zone below 1.0884. Considering the strong MACD divergence, we can look for intraday confirmation buying here. We should still consider 1.0908 and 1.0884 for buying. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0997 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3054
• Prev. Close: 1.3059
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04 %

In the UK, investors expect a more aggressive stance from the Bank of England to cut interest rates after the Bank’s Governor Andrew Bailey suggested such a possibility if inflationary pressures continue to ease. Traders are betting on two more rate cuts in 2024. But much will depend on tomorrow’s inflation report. If rates are higher than estimates, the Bank of England may go for just one cut at the next two meetings, which will be a growth trigger for the pound.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3035, 1.3013
• Resistance levels: 1.3113, 1.3175, 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. However, the British pound is more resistant to the growth of the euro than the US dollar. Last week, the price reached the support level of 1.3035, where buyers entered the game, but the pressure of sellers also persisted, which generated the formation of flat accumulation. Considering the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of corrective movement. Buying should be sought from the support level of 1.3035 or 1.3013. The first profit target is 1.3113. There are no optimal entry points for selling now, as the price is in front of the support levels.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3113 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.01
• Prev. Close: 149.75
• % chg. over the last day: +0.50 %

The Japanese yen fell to 149 per dollar on Monday, hitting its lowest level since early August, as the dollar strengthened on firm expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates further at its remaining meetings this year. This week, traders await Japanese inflation data, which is due out on Friday. A decline in consumer prices could distance the Bank of Japan from further rate hikes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.91, 148.28, 148.12, 147.50, 146.90, 146.02, 144.20, 143.53
• Resistance levels: 149.37, 151.03

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trading in the resistance zone above 149.37, and there is no seller’s reaction. A move above 149.95 will open the way for the price to 151.03, so in this scenario, you can look for buy trades intraday. However, if the sellers take the initiative and the price is fixed below 149.37 again, we can expect a corrective move to 149.37 or 148.91.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 148.32, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2653
• Prev. Close: 2648
• % chg. over the last day: -0.19 %

Gold held near $2,655 per ounce on Monday after rising 1% in the previous session as markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook following recent inflation reports. Core inflation slowed less than expected, while core inflation rose more strongly than expected. There is now an 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in November. Investors now await additional economic data, including retail sales reports and speeches from several Fed officials, for further guidance.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2641, 2623, 2605, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2658, 2669, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is still bullish. However, intraday sellers have taken the initiative temporarily. Currently, the price is testing the support level of 2641. If there is a reaction from buyers, we can look for long trades here. The first profit target is 2650, the second — 2658. If the price can consolidate below 2641, a sharp sell-off to 2623 may take place.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Trading recommendations

Alternative scenario: