The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.09.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1037
• Prev. Close: 1.1019
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16 %

Eurozone GDP growth for the second quarter was revised downward to 0.2%, in line with concerns that restrictive monetary policy has a greater impact on the bloc’s economy, especially in Germany. Consequently, markets have increased bets that the Central Bank will continue on the ECB’s rate-cutting course. The US inflation report will be released today. Lower inflationary pressures will increase the likelihood of the US Fed cutting rates by 0.50% immediately, which will likely put pressure on the US dollar. However, if the inflation data is more or less in line with expectations or will be stronger, the dollar will get temporary support.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1028, 1.1013, 1.0950, 1.0905, 1.0884
• Resistance levels: 1.1059, 1.1140, 1.1191, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price tested the support level of 1.1013, where the buyers took the initiative. At the same time, the bulls formed another support zone near 1.1028. With a high probability today on the US inflation news, the price will test the resistance level at 1.1059. If the buyers can break this level, the price will open the way to 1.1140. However, if sellers react to the 1.1059 level, the price may drop sharply and renew the week’s low.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1191 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3070
• Prev. Close: 1.3080
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07 %

The British pound strengthened slightly to $1.3 after the latest labor market data. UK wage growth slowed to 5.1%, the lowest in two years, while private sector wage growth, which is monitored by the Bank of England, also fell to a 2022 low of 4.9%. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, as expected. Against the backdrop of such data, the next rate cut from the Bank of England should not be expected until November at the earliest.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3055, 1.3031, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
• Resistance levels: 1.3120, 1.3150, 1.3202, 1.3306

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is downward. The situation is similar to the euro. Yesterday, the price tested the support level of 1.3055, where the buyers took the initiative. The nearest resistance levels where the price reaction should be evaluated is 1.3120. If sellers show interest here, we can look for sell trades with a target to 1.3055. A price consolidation above 1.3120 will open the way for the price to 1.3150.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3202 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 143.10
• Prev. Close: 142.45
• % chg. over the last day: -0.45 %

Bank of Japan officials see no need to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting as they are still watching the lingering volatility in the financial markets and the aftermath of the July rate hike. The yen’s decline was helped by Tuesday’s news that Japan’s machine tool orders fell by 3.5% y/y in August, the biggest decline in four months. Swaps estimate the odds of a BoJ rate hike at 10 bps at 0% at the September 20 meeting and 12% at the October 30–31 meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 141.08, 140.22, 137.26
• Resistance levels: 141.93, 144.42, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is a downtrend. The Japanese yen continues to strengthen amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates, while the Bank of Japan will raise rates during the year. The yen has now strengthened to 141.08 and is likely to decline to 140.22. To join the downtrend, it is best to use the levels of 141.08 (after a breakdown) or 141.93. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance at 143.72, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2506
• Prev. Close: 2516
• % chg. over the last day: +0.40 %

Lower inflation expectations reduced the demand for gold as an inflation hedge after the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell by 2.1 bps to a 5-week low. This is a negative for gold, but the medium-term outlook for bullion remains bright. The ECB and the US Federal Reserve will cut rates until the end of the year, which will contribute to further appreciation of gold and silver.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2511, 2488, 2471, 2451, 2440, 2416, 2367, 2343
• Resistance levels: 2526, 2532

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The bullion price is moving towards the important resistance level 2526. This level has been tested by the price 5 times already, and sellers managed to defend their positions before. However, today, on the news of inflation, this level can be broken, which will provoke a large sales coverage and will only accelerate the price to new historical highs. Buying can also be considered from the support level of 2511. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2451, the downtrend will likely resume.