The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.09.05

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3111
• Prev. Close: 1.3145
• % chg. over the last day: +0.26 %

The British pound sterling is nearly $1.31 in early September after rising 2.1% in August as expectations of a divergence in US and UK monetary policy continue to support the currency. The Bank of England recently cut its main interest rate to 5%, and traders expect an additional 40 basis point rate cut by the end of the year. In contrast, the Fed is projected to cut rates by 125 basis points this year. The rate cut differential is now in favor of the British currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3127, 1.3055, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
• Resistance levels: 1.3157, 1.3202, 1.3306

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is downward, but the pressure of buyers during the day can turn everything upside down. Currently, the price has reached the resistance level of 1.3157, where sellers are trying to protect their positions. A breakout of this level will sharply increase the probability in favor of a change of priority in the current time frame. Buy deals can be sought from the support level of 1.3127, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3202 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2493
• Prev. Close: 2496
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12 %

 

On Wednesday, JOLTS data showed a larger-than-expected drop in open job openings to 2021 lows, reinforcing expectations of a slowing labor market and increasing speculation of a significant 50 basis point Fed rate cut this month. This, as well as a sharp drop in the US ISM PMI, has raised doubts about the resilience of the US economy to higher interest rates. As a result, investors raised their expectations for a 125 basis point rate cut over the remaining three Fed meetings this year, compared to last week’s consensus of 100 basis points.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2488, 2471, 2451, 2440, 2416, 2367, 2343
• Resistance levels: 2509, 2532

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative from the 2471 support level and formed another support zone below 2488. Currently, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 2509. Intraday buying with a short stop can be looked for. Buying can also be considered from 2488, but with confirmation. The 2509 level can be considered for sell deals, subject to sellers’ reaction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2451, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 145.63
• Prev. Close: 143.73
• % chg. over the last day: -1.32 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 143.6 per dollar, near a one-month high, as investors reacted to data that the country’s real wages rose for the second consecutive month in July, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again before the end of the year. Inflation-adjusted real wages rose by 0.4% year-on-year in July, while total money income rose by 3.6%. This is in line with the BoJ’s forecast for moderate economic growth, wage growth, and higher overall inflation. The yen also benefited from increased demand for the safe-haven currency as weak data fueled fears of a US recession.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 142.69, 140.22, 137.26
• Resistance levels: 144.42, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26, 153.80

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY has changed to a downtrend. One trading day was enough for sellers to regain the initiative. This indicates the weakness of buyers in the medium term. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be sought from the resistance level 144.42, but with confirmation. The first profit target is 142.69. There are no optimal entry points for buyers now.

Alternative scenario:

 if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance at 146.30, the uptrend will likely resume.

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1042
• Prev. Close: 1.1082
• % chg. over the last day: +0.36 %

July Eurozone PPI fell by 2.1% y/y, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of year-on-year PPI declines and a dovish factor for ECB policy. But yesterday’s decline in the Dollar Index helped the European currency to strengthen moderately. Traders are still betting that the ECB will cut interest rates for the second time at its September 12 meeting, but since the probability of a 0.5% Fed rate cut in September has increased, the differential of rate cuts is now in favor of the European currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1063, 1.1028, 1.1017, 1.0950, 1.0905, 1.0884
• Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1159, 1.1191, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The price has consolidated above the trend line and above the moving averages. Buyers’ initiative prevails intraday, and the recent volume spikes confirm this. Under such market conditions on intraday time frames, we can look for buying from 1.1063 to test liquidity above 1.1100. If sellers show a reaction from 1.1100, it could reverse the trend intraday.

Alternative scenario:

 if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1191 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.