The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.07.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0854
• Prev. Close: 1.0840
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13%

Eurozone PMIs pointed to an unexpected stagnation in private sector activity in July, driven by a larger contraction in manufacturing and slower growth in services. Germany and France continued to lag the broader region. Before the release of the PMI data, traders raised bets on two additional ECB rate cuts this year to 90% from less than 80%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0840,1.0827,1.0807,1.0753,1.0727,1.0718
• Resistance levels: 1.0869,1.0884,1.0905,1.0953

Alternative scenario:

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to a downtrend. Yesterday, the price bounced from the support level at 1.0827, with buyers forming support at 1.0840. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under these market conditions, it is best to consider the 1.0840 support level for buying, but with intraday confirmation and short targets. The profit target is 1.0869. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to a downtrend. Yesterday, the price bounced from the support level at 1.0827, with buyers forming support at 1.0840. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under these market conditions, it is best to consider the 1.0840 support level for buying, but with intraday confirmation and short targets. The profit target is 1.0869. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0897 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2904
• Prev. Close: 1.2905
• % chg. over the last day: +0.01%

PMI data pointed to a slight acceleration in the growth of service sector activity and the strongest manufacturing output reading since February 2022. The data met expectations as companies reported increased confidence, hiring, and new orders following Labor’s convincing election victory. Despite this, bets on a Bank of England rate cut have not changed significantly, with the probability of an August cut remaining at 40%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2894,1.2824,1.2801,1.2761,1.2741,1.2701
• Resistance levels: 1.2909,1.2941,1.2976,1.3012,1.3025

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The price reached support at 1.2894, and the buyers reacted weakly. The MACD indicator is negative, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, if the price manages to consolidate above 1.2909, buyers can expect growth. However, sellers will show a reaction of 1.2909, and the price may fall to 1.2824.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2941 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 155.55
• Prev. Close: 153.85
• % chg. over the last day: -1.10%

The Japanese yen rose to 153 per dollar, reaching the highest level in the last 12 weeks. Market participants are abandoning asset trades and shorting ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting next week. Markets remain divided over whether the BoJ will raise interest rates again next week. However, it is expected to announce plans to reduce bond purchases amid efforts to wind down its massive monetary stimulus. Senior Japanese officials are also urging the central bank to make clear its intention to normalize monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.45,150.80,149.65
• Resistance levels: 153.36,155.84,156.86,1157.83,158.33

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. Sellers continue to press, and the price is declining. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, there are the first signs of divergence, but there is also plenty of room to fall. Now, the price aims at the support level of 151.45 or 150.80. During the day, you can look for sales, but it is best to sell on technical corrections. The level of 153.36 is the best for selling. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 157.18, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2408
• Prev. Close: 2398
• % chg. over the last day: -0.42%

Gold fell to around $2,370 per ounce on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in two weeks, as investors grew more cautious ahead of key US economic data that could provide insight into the potential timing of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The focus is on preliminary second-quarter GDP data due today, followed by Friday’s June PCE price index report. Elsewhere, physical demand is expected to pick up from India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, after the country’s government cut the gold import tax from 15% to 6%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2400,2391,2370,2351,2339,2319,2295,2276
• Resistance levels: 2434,2451,2471,2500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Yesterday, the price sharply started falling from the 2432 resistance level. At the moment, the price has reached the support level of 2375.55. The volumes show that the buyers here intend to stop the fall, but the sellers’ pressure remains high. The breakdown of 2370 will open the price way to 2343. But if the buyers take the initiative at 2370, the price may jump to 2400.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance level of 2432, the uptrend will likely resume.