The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.06.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0710
• Prev. Close: 1.0680
• % chg. over the last day: -0.28%

The hawkish comments of Fed spokeswoman Bowman on Wednesday contributed to the dollar’s strength when she said that inflation will remain elevated for some time, so the Fed should not cut interest rates yet. Also supporting the dollar was the yen’s fall to a 37-year low on Wednesday. The unexpected decline in the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for July was a negative factor for the euro. Additionally, political uncertainty in France is putting pressure on the euro, as Marine Le Pen’s far-right party “National Rally” is leading in the polls ahead of the first round of snap elections to the French legislature on Sunday.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0666,1.0590
• Resistance levels: 1.0715,1.0742,1.0756,1.0773,1.0817

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Yesterday, sellers took the initiative from the resistance level of 1.0715 again. The price fell to the 1.0666 support level, where the buyers again entered the game. In this scenario, intraday buy trades can be considered up to the resistance level of 1.0715, where selling can be considered if there is an appropriate reaction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0759 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2680
• Prev. Close: 1.2621
• % chg. over the last day: -0.47%

Fundamentally, the situation of the British pound has not changed. Investors are waiting for the snap elections, which will be held on June 4. Tomorrow, the UK will also publish macro statistics on GDP data. It is expected to grow by 0.6%, but it may not be enough to support the pound ahead of the elections.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2623,1.2602,1.2566
• Resistance levels: 1.2664,1.2693,1.2735,1.2806

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The price has reached an important support zone below 1.2623, where the buyers have entered the game. Recent volume spikes confirm this. The MACD indicator is negative, but the momentum is bullish, with divergence present. Under such market conditions, intraday buying can be sought with a target of up to 1.2664. A price move below 1.2623 will open the way to 1.2602.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2701 and consolidates above, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 159.64
• Prev. Close: 160.78
• % chg. over the last day: +0.71%

The Japanese yen fell to 160.87 per dollar, the lowest since 1986. Still, it recovered some of the losses as Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki issued new warnings against sharp exchange rate fluctuations. He reiterated that sudden unilateral movements in the yen’s exchange rate are undesirable and that authorities will take appropriate measures when necessary. The yen lost about 2% against the dollar in June, extending its year-to-date decline to nearly 14%, as the Bank of Japan took a more moderate stance in normalizing monetary policy than markets had expected.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 160.00,159.00,158.23,157.59,157.33,156.56
• Resistance levels: 160.70

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. Volumes still indicate the presence of a big buyer, but there are the first fixations of profits. A resistance area was formed above 160.70, which will be a growth limiter for the price. The presence of divergence on MACD indicates an emerging correction. Buying should be careful due to the strong price deviation. For selling, we can consider 160.70 provided that sellers react.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 159.28, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2319
• Prev. Close: 2298
• % chg. over the last day: -0.91%

The rally of the Dollar Index to an 8-week high on Wednesday lowered metal prices. Gold fell to a 2-week low. Traders are now focused on US economic reports to be released later this week. The focus is on Friday’s core PCE data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the third estimate of first-quarter GDP growth for further clues on the timing and scope of potential Fed rate cuts this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2295,2276
• Resistance levels: 2309,2339,2351,2370,2387

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is still bearish. On the senior time frames, gold forms a flat accumulation. There is sellers’ pressure intraday, and recent volume spikes confirm the presence of sellers. Under such market conditions, it is worth considering selling from the resistance zone near 2300, but only with confirmation. A move below 2295 will trigger a decline to 2276.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2387, the uptrend will likely resume.