The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.06.18

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0703
• Prev. Close: 1.0734
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

The euro stabilized around $1.07, remaining at 7-week lows after falling 0.8% last week as market participants actively monitored France’s political situation. The ECB recently cut rates for the first time in five years but is taking a cautious stance on additional cuts as recent data points to persistent inflationary pressures. Eurozone wages rose at an annualized rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, the highest rate since the fourth quarter of 2022. The Eurozone will release its CPI report today. No changes are expected, but any surprise in the form of rising consumer prices could boost the euro to the upside.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0693,1.0666,1.0590
• Resistance levels: 1.0744,1.0816

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Yesterday, the price tested the support zone below 1.0693, where buyers reacted. Currently, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 1.0744. Buying can be considered intraday from the moving average or trend lines. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0816 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2677
• Prev. Close: 1.2704
• % chg. over the last day: +0.21%

Investors await key economic data this week in the UK, including the Consumer Price Index and the Bank of England’s policy meeting. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday. However, there is speculation that more MPC members may push for a rate cut. The UK inflation is estimated to have fallen to 2% in May, in line with the Bank of England’s target. On the political front, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces challenges as the latest polls show his Conservative Party trailing ahead of the 4 July general election.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2686,1,2658,1.2647,1.2608
• Resistance levels: 1.2714,1.2735,1.2806

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Currently, the price is trading at the level of moving averages. Until the publication of inflation news on Wednesday, the price is likely to trade in the range of 1.2686–1.2714. Therefore, intraday these levels can be used to open positions, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2806 and consolidates above, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 157.29
• Prev. Close: 157.71
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told the Japanese parliament that he may raise interest rates again at the July meeting depending on upcoming economic data. He also noted that rising import costs caused by a weak yen could weigh on household spending but added that rising wages could boost consumption. This could open the door for the currency to strengthen expectations ahead of the meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 157.52,157.33,156.56
• Resistance levels: 157.98,158.29

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen forms a flat accumulation in the range of 157.52–157.98. The price will likely remain in this range until Friday’s meeting of the Bank of Japan. There is buying pressure inside the day, so buying is best to look for from the 157.52 level. For sell deals, it is better to use the resistance level of 158.29, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 156.56, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2331
• Prev. Close: 2319
• % chg. over the last day: -0.52%

Precious metals suffered moderate losses on Monday. The rise in global bond yields put pressure on them. Reduced political uncertainty in France limited demand for precious metals after National Party leader Le Pen said she would work with French President Macron if she wins the upcoming national election. In addition, hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Harker depressed gold prices when they stated that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2315,2300,2276
• Resistance levels: 2339,2370

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. On Friday, the price again reached the resistance zone 2339, where sellers showed a moderate reaction. At the moment, a broadly volatile sideways trend is forming. The 2315 support level can be used for buying, but with confirmation. If sellers breakdown this level, the price will fall back to 2300.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2387, the uptrend will likely resume.