The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.06.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0762
• Prev. Close: 1.0740
• % chg. over the last day: -0.20%

Today, the US Central Bank will hold its next monetary policy meeting. Economists expect the FOMC to keep the interest rate at 5.5%. Market watchers will focus on how many rate cuts will be made before the end of 2024. The updated dot plot will likely point to two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, up from three in March. This may strengthen the dollar, harming risk assets (euro, pound), metals, and indices.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0713
• Resistance levels: 1.0750,1.0785,1.0859,1.0902,1.0923,1.1000

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Yesterday, the price reached the resistance zone 1.0770–1.0785, where sellers showed a reaction. The MACD indicator is signaling divergence, but the price has not yet reached the liquidity zone below 1.0713, which can be considered for opening buy deals. Intraday, we can look for selling from the moving average lines or the 1.0750 level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0902 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2726
• Prev. Close: 1.2739
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10%

Fresh data showed that the UK labor market may be cooling, giving investors some confidence that the Bank of England may start cutting interest rates this year and possibly by the end of the summer. Wage growth remains strong, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since September 2021, and job vacancies continue to fall. Important economic indicators to watch today include monthly GDP, industrial production, construction output, and the trade balance.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2711,1.2687,1,2668,1.2647,1.2608
• Resistance levels: 1.2739,1.2804,1.2828

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still upward. The price failed to reach the level of priority change, with buyers taking the initiative from the level of 1.2710. However, the resistance zone above 1.2739 is a stumbling block for further upside. Under such market conditions, it is worth looking for selling from 1.2739, with a target of 1.2711.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2693 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 156.97
• Prev. Close: 157.07
• % chg. over the last day: +0.06%

Producer prices in Japan rose to 2.4% year-on-year in May 2024, accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.1% in April, the highest since August last year. The latest figure also exceeded market expectations for a 2% rise, raising concerns that this could lead to higher consumer inflation.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 156.45,155.85,155.12
• Resistance levels: 157.46,157.98

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen slowly continues to lose positions against the US dollar. The price is now consolidating, with some bullish pressure intraday. At the same time, the price is rising on the falling MACD, indicating weakness in selling. Intraday buying is possible with a target of up to 157.46. A breakout of this level will open the way to 157.98.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 155.85, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2312
• Prev. Close: 2316
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

Gold prices fell to $2,310 per ounce on Wednesday, near one-month lows, as caution prevails ahead of key US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. Investors will focus on the Central Bank’s updated economic estimates, which are expected to show fewer rate cuts than previously thought. This could put additional pressure on precious metals.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2300,2276,2249,2229,2206
• Resistance levels: 2327,2339,2395,2432,2450,2500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is downward. The price has corrected to the levels of moving averages, but the bias remains for sellers. The MACD indicator has become inactive. The price forms a balanced structure, and volatility will likely remain low until the inflation news. As the price failed to reach an important support zone below 1.2276 last week, there remains a high probability of a fall to this level. The resistance level of 1.2327 could be considered for selling, but the price could test it on the news publications very quickly.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2387, the uptrend is likely to resume.