The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.11.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0571
• Prev. Close: 1.0620
• % chg. over the last day: +0.46%

Comments from US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting reinforced speculation that the Fed is ending its rate hike cycle. The dollar’s losses accelerated after Thursday’s release of US economic reports showing weekly jobless claims and nonfarm labor productivity rose more than expected in the third quarter, a dovish factor for Fed policy. The dollar weakness on Thursday provided support for the euro. Today, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released in the US. If the data points to a robust labor market, it could shift sentiment sharply back in favor of a stronger US dollar. Trading recommendations

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0602,1.0551,1.0522,1.0495,1.0483
• Resistance levels: 1.0674,1.0620,1.0670,1.0693,1.0736

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend, but the price seeks to change the priority, and much will depend on after today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the moment, the price is trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is positive, and intraday buying pressure prevails. There is a high probability of testing liquidity above the resistance level of 1.0674. Buy deals can be looked for from the support level of 1.0602, but they are subject to buyers’ reactions. Selling should be considered after a liquidity test above 1.0674 with sellers’ reactions or after an impulsive breakdown of 1.0602 support level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0674 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2153
• Prev. Close: 1.27471.2197
• % chg. over the last day: +0.36%

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend but close to change. The price is trading above the moving averages, while the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and the falling histogram shows price growth, which indicates the strength of buyers. Buying should be sought from the support level of 1.2157 or the moving average lines to test the resistance level of 1.2233. Sell trades can be looked for after the sellers’ reaction to the 1.2233 level.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2157,1.2088,1.2070
• Resistance levels: 1.2200,1.2233,1.2289,1.2332,1.2384

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2233 and consolidates above it, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

Alternative scenario:

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 150.91
• Prev. Close: 150.42
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

The yen is rising for the second day on Thursday as the sharp decline in T-note yields is having a positive impact on the yen. The yen also strengthened after Japanese Prime Minister Kishida announced a larger-than-expected 17 trillion yen stimulus package aimed at boosting economic growth. Also yesterday, rumors resurfaced that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda plans to phase out the Bank of Japan’s ultra-soft monetary policy by the end of next year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 149.75,149.45,148.80,147.32,147.02,146.76
• Resistance levels: 150.78,151.92

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is upward. The price is correcting and is now trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has turned negative while selling pressure remains intraday. The price will likely continue to correct within the uptrend. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support levels of 149.75 or 149.45, but with confirmation in the form of buyer reaction. For selling, the resistance level of 150.78 can be considered, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price consolidates below the support level at 148.80, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1983.42
• Prev. Close: 1985.53
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10%

Precious metals prices rose moderately on Thursday, helped by the decline in the dollar index to a one-week low. Also bullish for precious metals was the decline in global bond yields on Thursday. However, the rise in gold prices was partially limited by a strong rally in stock indices. During strong moves, investors rush to move funds into rising assets, contributing to some outflow of funds from protective assets such as gold, the US dollar, and even the Swiss franc.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1963.02,1953.40,1928.04,1907.78,1883.47
• Resistance levels: 1990.77,1995.54,2009.42

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an upward trend. Currently, the price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. At the same time, the price is again forming a flat accumulation, and, likely, the situation will not change dramatically until the Nonfarm Payrolls news. Under such market conditions, buying can be considered intraday with targets up to the resistance level of 1990.77. For sell deals, the resistance level of 1995.54 can be considered, provided sellers react to the level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 1953.40, the downtrend will likely resume.