The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.04.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0917
• Prev. Close: 1.0900
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

Friday’s labor market data showed that the US nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 in March, in line with the forecast of 239,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in February. Average hourly earnings, which reflect wage inflation, rose by 0.3% in March after rising 0.2% in February. The US dollar strengthened on Friday on the back of this data. Analysts believe that the current economic data will support another 0.25% interest rate hike (70% probability) by the Fed at the May meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0881,1.0839,1.0770,1.0680,1.0519,1.0482
• Resistance levels: 1.0937,1.0924,1.0988,1.1032

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is forming a narrow price range. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but there is some selling pressure inside the day. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0881 or 1.0839, but only with confirmation in the form of a false breakdown. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0937, but only on the condition of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0770 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2439
• Prev. Close: 1.2415
• % chg. over the last day: -0.19%

Analysts say the UK currency will likely be relatively stable in the coming weeks. The US Fed is likely to pause earlier than the Bank of England before starting to cut rates later this year. While the rate differential between the two currencies may not increase sharply, a reduction in the interest rate differential could support GBP/USD in the near term.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2359,1.2320,1.2267,1.2178,1.2112,1.2009,1.1963
• Resistance levels: 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and there is a slight selling pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider buying from the support level of 1.2359 but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames, but with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the 1.2267 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 131.75
• Prev. Close: 132.11
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

On Friday, Haruhiko Kuroda handed over the reins to the new Governor, Kazuo Ueda, and said goodbye to the Bank of Japan. In his last speech as governor, Kuroda pointed to progress in his radical stimulus policy but added thatм15 years of deflation in Japan had created a strong sense amongst the population that prices and wages would not rise again. Kuroda said the Bank of Japan might well abandon monetary policy easing without overturning the banking system. According to analysts, if inflation in Japan starts to decline and steadily returns to 2%, new BOJ Governor Ueda will face a new challenge of a smooth exit from his predecessor’s radical stimulus.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 132.13,130.62,127.80
• Resistance levels: 132.35,133.16,135.11,136.07,137.91

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone again, and there is buying pressure inside the day. Now the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages, so for buying, it is better to wait for a downward correction wave. Sell deals could be sought from a resistance level of 132.85 or 133.16, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price fixes below the 130.62 support level, the downtrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3481
• Prev. Close: 1.3516
• % chg. over the last day: +0.26%

Last month the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to suspend its rate hike campaign, raising its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. Inflation has fallen in recent months, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is picking up. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is seeking to restore public confidence after facing criticism for acting too slowly to rein in inflation.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3456,1.3400
• Resistance levels: 1.3535,1.3564,1.3616,1.3644,1.3694,1.3722,1.3786

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is slowly correcting upwards. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there is no buying pressure, and there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy positions are best sought from the support level of 1.3456 but with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 1.3535, but only with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Selling will also be appropriate in case of an impulsive breakdown of the upward trend line.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3564, the uptrend will likely resume.