The EUR/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.0339
- Prev. Close: 1.0328
- % chg. over the last day: -0.10%
Germany’s Consumer Price Index fell from 10.4% to 10% annually. The main criterion for the decline in inflation is the drop in energy prices. Food prices have not slowed down: they rose from 20.3% to 21%. Thus, it is too early to say that this decline in inflation is due to a rate hike by the ECB. Today, the Eurozone inflation data will also be released. Analysts expect consumer prices to remain at the same level. This outlook will increase the likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates by 0.5% at the next ECB meeting.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.0284,1.0193,1.0092,1.0043,0.9968
- Resistance levels: 1.0359,1.0420,1.0504
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading at the level of moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence, which indicates that the correction will be completed soon. Buy trades are best considered from the support level 1.0284, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 1.0359, but it is better with confirmation as a reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0194 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2023.07.04
- French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
- German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US ADP NonFarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.1957
- Prev. Close: 1.1951
- % chg. over the last day: -0.05%
Bank of England policy head Catherine Mann said yesterday that other price components are increasingly starting to be included in inflation. So the Bank of England’s inflation target may be revised from 2% to 4%. But when asked about the Bank of England’s next move, Mann did not make an answer, saying she wanted to see economic data before making a decision. Investors expect the Bank of England to hold one 0.5% rate hike at its next meeting in December.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.1945,1.1684,1.1476,1.1418,1.1172,1.1093,1.0915,1.0817
- Resistance levels: 1.2043,1.2147,1.2167
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are signs of divergence, which indicates that the correction will soon be over. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.1945, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2043, but they are also better with confirmation.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks down of the 1.1800 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
No news for today
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 138.90
- Prev. Close: 138.69
- % chg. over the last day: -0.15%
Japan’s industrial production fell by 2.6% in October from the previous month, mainly due to weak external demand amid an economic slowdown in China and other countries. The seasonally adjusted factory production index was 95.9, compared with a baseline of 100. Of the 15 industries surveyed, eight recorded a decline in production, and seven recorded an increase. Based on the survey of manufacturers, the ministry expects industrial production to rise by 3.3% in November and by 2.4% in December.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 137.65,136.80
- Resistance levels: 139.23,140.75,143.17,145.16,146.06,147.34,148.82,150.00
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. The price trades at the level of moving averages, and a narrow price range with signs of liquidity narrowing is formed. As a rule, such patterns lead to a sharp impulse movement. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 137.65, but only with confirmation because the level has already been tested. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 139.23, provided that there is a reversal or a false breakout.
Alternative scenario:If the price fixes above 145.84, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2023.07.04
- Japan Industrial production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+3).
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.3497
- Prev. Close: 1.3578
- % chg. over the last day: +0.60%
The Canadian economy continues to outperform nearly all others, posting much stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 2.9% in the third quarter. Strong unexpected GDP growth in the third quarter forces the Canadian economy to move further into excess demand, negating the Bank of Canada’s efforts to reduce inflationary pressures. The risk of a lower rate hike in December has declined, and a 50 basis point hike looks more likely. The Canadian dollar declined sharply after the report, but this was due in part to the broad movement of the US dollar against other crosses.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.3535,1.3479,1.3386,1.3281,1.3212
- Resistance levels: 1.3658,1.3682,1.3776,1.3855
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and fixed above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of reversal. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames after a small pullback from the support level of 1.3535 or 1.3479, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3658 but with confirmation as a reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2023.07.04
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.