The EUR/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 0.9841
- Prev. Close: 0.9833
- % chg. over the last day: -0.08%
Consumer confidence in the Eurozone fell to its lowest-ever level amid fears over the rising cost of living and a slowing economy. Consumer confidence in the region fell to 28.8, well below the long-term average of 11.0. The European currency remains oversold against the US dollar, the outlook remains bearish, and there are few positive catalysts on the horizon. The Fed’s hawkish roadmap, which points to a final rate of 4.6% in 2023, suggests an additional tightening of about 150 basis points. This will support the dollar’s bull impulse.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 0.9800
- Resistance levels: 0.9866,0.9949,1.0111,1.0162,1.0230
From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages, and sellers’ pressure is still high. The MACD indicator is negative, but divergence can be seen in several time frames. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 0.9866. Buy trades can be considered from the round level of 0.9800, but only with confirmation.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks out through the resistance level of 1.0111 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2023.07.04
- Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone France Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone France Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.1259
- Prev. Close: 1.1250
- % chg. over the last day: -0.08%
The Bank of England raised interest rates to their highest level in 14 years. The Central Bank of Great Britain voted to raise rates by another 0.5% to 2.25%. Bank officials voted unanimously to raise interest rates amid fears that the British economy could enter a recession during a comprehensive energy crisis gripping much of Europe. It was the bank’s seventh consecutive rate hike since December. Money markets are now forecasting another 50 basis point increase in November.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.1200
- Resistance levels: 1.1394,1.1449,1.1626,1.1693,1.1816,1.1901,1.1994
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is currently trading below the moving averages, and sellers’ pressure remains. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence, and it is getting stronger. Sell trades are better to look for on the intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1394. Buy trades can be considered from the round level of 1.1200, but only with confirmation.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks out of the 1.1626 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2023.07.04
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 143.94
- Prev. Close: 142.36
- % chg. over the last day: -1.11%
Japan intervened in currency to support the yen for the first time since 1998 in an attempt to stem a 20% fall in the yen against the dollar this year amid a widening policy divergence with the United States. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said the Central Bank would defend the 145 USD/JPY level. Against the backdrop of these developments, the Japanese yen strengthened sharply yesterday. The intervention of the Ministry of Finance took place hours after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged and reiterated its commitment to super soft monetary policy.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 140.60,139.61,138.78,137.65,136.80,135.20
- Resistance levels: 143.46,145.00
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish despite the intervention. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and the price is below the moving lines, but the priority level is not broken. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be looked for on intraday time frames, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 143.46 or 145.00, but only with additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario:If the price fixes below 140.60, the downtrend will likely resume.
No news for today
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.3452
- Prev. Close: 1.3486
- % chg. over the last day: +0.25%
The Canadian dollar is still under pressure from the rise in the dollar index and the decline in oil prices. At the moment, the Bank of Canada and the US Fed are holding interest rates at the same level, but the difference is that the Bank of Canada will be less aggressive in further rate hikes as inflation in Canada shows signs of slowing. At the same time, the US Fed will not stop yet and will raise rates further aggressively, which will support the dollar’s momentum. Therefore, a trend reversal in the USD/CAD currency pair is only possible if oil prices start to rise again, which is likely since Nigeria’s Oil Minister Timipre Marlin Silva, speaking on behalf of the OPEC+ producers’ alliance, threatened to cut global oil production if prices continue to fall.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.3454,1.3298,1.3212,1.3053,1.2990,1.2958,1.2936,1.2900
- Resistance levels: 1.3531,1.3561
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive, there is buying pressure, but the divergence is increasing. The price has reached the daily resistance zone. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3454. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3531 or 1.3561, but only after an additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.3212 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2023.07.04
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.