The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.04.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0776
• Prev. Close: 1.0788
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said on Tuesday that if global supply chain disruptions remain, policymakers will have to take even more aggressive action to lower inflation. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, said he expects two 50-basis-point interest rate hikes at the next meetings. As markets tend to include the price in a future scenario, the dollar index is rising.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0727,1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.0844,1.0889,1.0958,1.1027,1.1196,1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has taken a more flat structure. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0727, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades should be considered from the resistance levels of 1.0844 or 1.0889, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.0958 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3011
• Prev. Close: 1.2998
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10%

The situation on the GBP/USD currency pair remains the same. The British currency now looks more confident than the euro as the Bank of England raised interest rates three times. Economic data shows no signs of stagflation (slowing economic growth with high inflation). But GBP/USD quotes are declining due to the steady growth of the dollar index due to falling spread between the yields of the US and UK government bonds.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3002,1.2993
• Resistance levels: 1.3094,1.3115,1.3147,1.3244,1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The MACD indicator has become positive, but there is divergence on the intraday timeframes. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be considered from the resistance level of 1.3094, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.3002, but only after the appearance of a bullish initiative and with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the 1.3147 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 126.94
• Prev. Close: 128.88
• % chg. over the last day: +1.53%

The dollar rose to a 20-year high against the Japanese yen on Tuesday. The opposite policies of the US and Japanese central banks led to a strong uptrend in the USD/JPY currency pair. There is growing dissatisfaction in Japan with ultra-soft monetary policy. Many analysts believe the central bank needs to step in to strengthen the yen temporarily. Morgan Stanley said in its latest research note that the yen’s decline against the dollar was justified by Japan’s deteriorating terms of trade and a surge in commodity prices, which led to higher import costs.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 128.19,126.69,125.72,124.66,124.24,122.97,122.63,121.81
• Resistance levels: 129.36

The mid-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive, but there is a divergence on the higher timeframes. The price has significantly deviated from the moving averages and does not make significant pullbacks. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but after the price makes a pullback to the average lines. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 126.69, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 129.36 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

If the price fixes below 124.66, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2609
• Prev. Close: 1.2621
• % chg. over the last day: +0.09%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on the movement of oil prices and the dollar index. The dollar index continued to rise yesterday, while oil prices went down, which caused the USD/CAD to rise. Oil prices jumped about 1% from the opening today after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its economic growth forecasts. This gave a boost to the Canadian dollar. From the fundamental point of view, the USD/CAD quotes do not have the unified dynamics now as both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve are aimed to tighten the monetary policy, and the growth in oil prices has a positive effect on the strengthening of the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2567,1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2644,1.2713,1.2754,1.2851

The USD/CAD currency pair trend is bullish in terms of technical analysis. Currently, the price is trading in the price corridor at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. It is worth trading only with short term targets, since there are fundamentally no prerequisites for a medium-term trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2567, but it is better with additional confirmation because the level has already been tested. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2644, but it is also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2467, the downtrend will likely be resumed.