The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.12.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1329
• Prev. Close: 1.1236
• % chg. over the last day: -0.83%

The German producer price index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and large companies, reached a new absolute record of 19.2% on an annualized basis. High energy prices remain a major factor in the rise in inflation. Energy prices increased by 49.4% this year due to a strong increase in natural gas prices of 83.4%. Spain’s inflation rate reached 5.5%. This is less than forecast, but inflation is at its highest level in 29 years, and it is rising faster than wages. The consumer price index in the Eurozone remained at 4.9% as expected.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1230,1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1265,1.1323,1.1360,1.1436,1.1535,1.1613,1.1667,1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish. The price is trading in a wide corridor. Against the background of a sharp strengthening of the dollar index on Friday, the EUR/USD quotes fell sharply. The MACD indicator has become negative, sellers’ pressure prevails. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames after the price fixes above the level of 1.1265.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.1360 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3318
• Prev. Close: 1.3235
• % chg. over the last day: -0.63%

UK retail sales increased by 1.4% in November; a rise of 0.8% was expected. Omicron strain infections in the UK continue to rise before the Christmas holidays. Official figures show a 52% increase in illnesses over the past week. Across the country, Premier League games, which have always been considered the most popular entertainment for Brits over the Christmas vacations, have begun to be canceled.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3220,1.3189
• Resistance levels: 1.3272,1.3301,1.3365,1.3434,1.3507,1.3575,1.3685

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is still bullish. But the rise in the dollar index led to the weakening of the British currency. The MACD indicator has become negative, sellers’ pressure prevails. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buy positions from the nearest support levels but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance levels near the moving average.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the 1.3189 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 113.62
• Prev. Close: 113.70
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07%

From a fundamental point of view, the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is aimed at active economic stimulation, while the US Federal Reserve, on the contrary, accelerated the reduction of the quantitative easing program last week. Such a situation is in favor of further growth of USD/JPY quotes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 113.30,112.62,112.30
• Resistance levels: 113.95,114.17,115.15,115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price failed to break out through the f priority change level and again returned to the wide corridor. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell positions from the resistance level of 113.95, but with additional confirmation. Buy positions should be considered from the 113.30 support level, but with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative or after the price breaks out the priority change level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price rises above 114.17, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2773
• Prev. Close: 1.2887
• % chg. over the last day: +0.89%

Federal Reserve officials said Friday that the first interest rate hike may come as soon as March. Investors began to shift their portfolios back to “cash”, which led to an increase in the dollar index. The rise in the dollar led to a decline in major currencies against the US dollar. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly correlated with both the dollar index and oil prices. Oil prices are declining sharply amid the rapid spread of the Omicron strain. All of these factors are weakening the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2828,1.2721,1.2677,1.2638
• Resistance levels: 1.2918,1.2951

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive, the buyers’ pressure has increased, there are no signs of reversal at the moment. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support levels near the moving average on the lower time frames. Sell deals should be considered from the false breakout area, but with additional confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the 1.2766 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.