The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.02.05

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2035
• Prev. Close: 1.1962
• % chg. over the last day: -0.61%.

The EUR/USD continues to be the weakest pair among the G10 currencies. The euro suffered especially strong losses against the sterling, which closed the day in positive territory. On the daily chart, the pair has stopped near the SMA100 moving average, which could trigger a pullback. The data on the US market may be critical for the further movement.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1921,1.1799
• Resistance levels: 1.2059

The main scenario for trading the EUR/USD is selling on the rise. The pair may be currently looking for a new support level for a pullback. The ADX indicates a high potential for movement. It reached the short-term oversold area yesterday. A small divergence has formed on the MACD. These are all signs of a northern correction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price consolidates above the level of 1.2030, the pair may return to the 1.2059 level.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3641
• Prev. Close: 1.3668
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

On Thursday, the pound returned to its previous range after the Bank of England comments on monetary policy. The market is now less likely to expect a rate cut this year. In the light of this news, the pound rebounded from the day’s lows by 130 points, closing the day with a bullish engulfing candlestick.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3609,1.3565
• Resistance levels: 1.3716,1.3757

The main scenario for the GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3716 and 1.3609. Despite the rapid growth on Thursday and the price-fixing above the moving averages, the situation is rather unclear. The ADX ignored the impulse and remained at low levels. This gives a reason to believe that further growth will be limited by the first resistance level.

Alternative scenario:

if the pair consolidates above 1.3616, it is likely to continue growing to 1.3757. A breakthrough of 1.3609 will bring the pair back to a downtrend scenario.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 105.00
• Prev. Close: 105.54
• % chg. over the last day: +0.53%

The dollar-yen pair continues to grow steadily amid the optimistic mood on the stock market and the strengthening of the US dollar. Today’s NFP data will play a crucial role for the trend. The pair has stopped near the November highs and the dollar index is near the SMA100 moving average.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 104.82,104.40
• Resistance levels: 105.68,106.12

The main scenario is buying. The pair has almost reached the main goal. A pullback can be expected within the day, as the short-term overbought area is observed on the H1 and the H4 time frames. A pullback to the moving averages in the area of 105.25 – 105.10 may be appropriate.

Alternative scenario:

An alternative scenario implies a price-fixing below 104.10. In this case, the pair may decline to 104.82 – 104.40.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2782
• Prev. Close: 1.2821
• % chg. over the last day: +0.30%

The pair has stuck in the range. Oil quotes continued to rise, which contributed to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar. But the US dollar is also showing an upward trend. As a result, the USD/CAD fluctuates near the moving averages.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2760,1.2737
• Resistance levels: 1.2844,1.2875

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2844 and 1.2760. The ADX is still close to the minimum values, and the MACD is near zero. Taking into account the expectations of a strong news background in the American session, the probability of going out of the range is high.

Alternative scenario:

if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2844, the pair may resume growth to the resistance level of 1.2875 or higher. A breakthrough of 1.2760 could trigger a further decline.