The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.02.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2041
• Prev. Close: 1.2034
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06%.

The EUR/USD, one might say, reluctantly reacts to positive statistics from the US. The decline looks more like a symbolic one, although the dynamics of government bonds, where the yield of American securities is growing faster than of the European ones, confirms the development of a southern correction in the pair.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2004,1.1799
• Resistance levels: 1.2059

The main scenario for trading the EUR/USD is selling on the rise. Not all indicators show a decline at the moment. A divergence has formed on the MACD, and the ADX shows a decline in bearish potential, which may indicate a corrective rise. However, it is only considered in the short term, as the H4 and the D1 timeframes are all set to the south.

Alternative scenario:

if the price consolidates above the level of 1.2059, the pair may return to the previous range of 1.2059 – 1.2155.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3663
• Prev. Close: 1.3640
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17%

On Wednesday, the sterling showed a greater tendency to decline than the euro, breaking through the key support level. This is a strong signal to sell, but one should take into account that speculative movements in the market are possible ahead of the announcement of the BOE meeting results. The situation can change during the European session, and the breakthrough may turn out false.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3539,1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3609,1.3757

The main scenario for trading the GBP/USD pair is cautious selling on the rise. The tech specs can be hardly called bearish. Fixation below the moving averages gives a southern signal. Although the MACD is showing divergence and the ADX is not showing any significant reaction to the southward movement. The aggregate signal is very close to neutral.

Alternative scenario:

if the pair consolidates above 1.3609, it is likely to resume growth to 1.3675.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 104.95
• Prev. Close: 105.01
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05%

The dollar-yen in the Asian session was able to renew its Tuesday highs. There are no reasons for it to stop yet. The growth of the dollar index is caused by the publication of positive economic data. Optimism has returned to the stock market, and yields on the credit market are growing. These are all bullish factors for the pair.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 104.82,104.40
• Resistance levels: 105.68,106.12

The main scenario is buying. Apparently, the next target for the pair will be 105.68, as the ADX shows a significant reaction to the growth. About 50 more points are needed to reach the overheating area. Other indicators also speak in favor of growth. Given the fact that the growth is continuing after consolidation, the movement can continue without pullbacks.

Alternative scenario:

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 104.82. In this case, the pair may decline to 104.40.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2776
• Prev. Close: 1.2781
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

After a strong decline on Wednesday, the pair practically froze. Bullish and bearish factors put pressure on the instrument from both sides. On the one hand, the continuing rise in oil prices is driving the Canadian dollar up. On the other hand, the growth of the US dollar puts pressure on the quotes. In a situation like this, determining the main direction is difficult.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2737,1.2686
• Resistance levels: 1.2818,1.2875

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2818 and 1.2737. The ADX fell to the minimum values, while the MACD is close to zero. The price has stopped near the moving averages, which altogether gives a neutral signal.

Alternative scenario:

if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2818, the pair may resume its growth to the resistance level of 1.2875. A breakthrough at the 1.2737 level could trigger a further decline.