The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.0704
- Prev Close: 1.0714
- % chg. over the last day: +0.09 %
The euro climbed above $1.075, hitting a two-week high, amid signs that Marine Le Pen's National Rally party will win the first round of French parliamentary elections as expected. However, exit polls showed that the far-right party beat its rivals by a smaller margin than expected, and the final result remains highly uncertain ahead of next week's runoff.
- Support levels: 1.0739, 1.0718, 1.0685, 1.0666, 1.0590
- Resistance levels: 1.0773, 1.0837
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At Monday's opening, the euro opened with a gap up, which was a surprise for investors. Now the price is approaching the level of priority change level at 1.0772, where it is possible to look for sell deals if there is an appropriate reaction. A breakout of 1.0772 will change the priority and open the way for the price to 1.0837. Support levels of 1.0739 or 1.0718 can be considered for buying.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0772 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2635
- Prev Close: 1.2643
- % chg. over the last day: +0.06 %
Parliamentary elections will be held in the UK this week. Polls predict a victory for the opposition Labour Party in Thursday's election, which could lead to further strength in Sterling as Labor favors a resumption of direct trade relations with the European Union. The British pound is expected to trade at 1.27 during the quarter.
- Support levels: 1.2623, 1.2602, 1.2566
- Resistance levels: 1.2664, 1.2693, 1.2735, 1.2806
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The price reached an important support zone below 1.2623, where buyers entered the game. The latest volume surges confirm this. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, traders can again look for buy deals with a target of up to 1.2681. A move above 1.2681 will open the way to the priority change level of 1.2701.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2701 and consolidates above, the uptrend will likely resume.
- – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
- Prev Open: 160.70
- Prev Close: 160.83
- % chg. over the last day: +0.08 %
- Support levels: 160.80, 160.00, 159.00, 158.23, 157.59, 157.33, 156.56
- Resistance levels: 161.50, 162.00
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).
- Prev Open: 2328
- Prev Close: 2326
- % chg. over the last day: -0.08 %
- Support levels: 2309, 2295, 2276
- Resistance levels: 2330, 2339, 2351, 2370, 2387
- – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
The yen fell to a 38-year low last week after the Finance Ministry appointed Atsushi Mimura as Japan's chief currency diplomat amid growing pressure to further defend the currency. The yen lost 2.3% against the dollar in June, extending its year-to-date decline to around 14%, as the Bank of Japan took a more moderate stance in normalizing monetary policy than markets had expected. A downward revision to Japan's first-quarter GDP data put further pressure on the currency on Friday. The second revision showed that Japan's economy contracted at an annualized rate of 2.9% in January-March, a sharper decline from the previous 1.8% reading, as the revision to public works spending was much weaker.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. Volumes still indicate the presence of a big buyer, but there are the first fixations of profits. The price managed to consolidate above the resistance at 160.80, and now this level has mirrored support. The presence of divergence on MACD indicates a correction, but there is no confirmation from sellers yet. For take profits, we should consider round levels — 161.50, 162, etc. For sell deals, we can consider 160.80, provided the price consolidates below it again. Also, do not forget that the Bank of Japan may intervene at any time to support the rate.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks below the support level of 159.28, the downtrend will likely resume.
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Gold held around $2,325 an ounce on Monday as investors continued to assess the latest US inflation data. The Fed's preferred measure of core inflation slowed to its slowest annual rate since 2021 last Friday, raising hopes that price growth will be on target and supporting expectations for two rate cuts this year. Investors will now turn to the US payrolls report and FOMC minutes due this week for clarity on the timing of the Fed's rate cuts. India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, saw weak physical demand for gold last week as prices rose.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is still bearish. On higher time frames, gold is forming a flat accumulation. There is buying pressure during the day, but the latest volume spikes show a bearish reaction. The resistance level of 2330 may become a problem for buyers. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be sought from the 2330, but with confirmation. For buy deals, you can consider support at 2309.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2387, the uptrend will likely resume.
by , 2024.07.01
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