The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.10.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0813
• Prev. Close: 1.0801
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11 %

The euro fell to 1.0800, the lowest level since early August, as money markets increased expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB cut rates for the third time this year, citing improved inflation control and a worsening Eurozone economic outlook. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments were interpreted as signaling a worsening economic outlook, leading markets to expect a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting through mid-2025. The rate is expected to be cut by 25 bps in December, with a 30% chance of a larger 50 bps rate cut.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0780
• Resistance levels: 1.0836, 1.0868, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013, 1.1036, 1.1079

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The price decreased to 1.0800 and consolidated below the support level of 1.0809. With a high probability, the downward movement will continue. Selling can be looked for from resistance levels 1.0813 or 1.0836. The profit target is 1.0780. If buyers take the initiative from 1.0780, considering the accumulative MACD divergence, we can try buying.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0871 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2981
• Prev. Close: 1.2984
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

According to economists, UK interest rates are expected to fall faster than previously expected after the release of key data showing that inflationary pressures are finally easing. Services inflation, one of the most important indicators for the Bank of England, came in well below expectations in September, with wage growth slowing further. Nevertheless, market watchers await the Labor government’s debut budget later this month to see what impact it will have on the economy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2969, 1.2932
• Resistance levels: 1.3011, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171, 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3377

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, by the end of the trading session, the price tested the liquidity below 1.2969, but the buyers did not let the price gain ground and pushed the price back above the level. Given the MACD divergence, this is a strong bullish factor. Inside the day, we can look for buying with a target up to 1.3011. A move below 1.2969 will open the price to 1.2932.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3032 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 150.78
• Prev. Close: 151.07
• % chg. over the last day: +0.19 %

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen slid to 151 per dollar, reaching its lowest level in almost three months and breaking through the key 150 per dollar mark, which markets fear could trigger another currency intervention by the Japanese authorities. The yen remains under pressure amid recent BoJ comments suggesting that BoJ officials see no need to rush to raise interest rates. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10bp rate hike by the BoJ at 1% for the October 30–31 meeting and 20% for a 10bp hike at the December 18–19 meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 150.50, 149.63, 148.90, 148.12
• Resistance levels: 153.42

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Today, at the Asian session, the price broke through an important resistance level and is now moving towards 153.42. Intraday, any pullback to the moving lines can be used for buying. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 148.15, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2719
• Prev. Close: 2748
• % chg. over the last day: +1.07 %

Gold rose to nearly $2,750 per ounce, a new record, helped by its safe haven asset status due to rising geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Clashes between Hezbollah and Israel continue in Lebanon, and after an Iranian drone that breached an air defense system exploded near Prime Minister Netanyahu’s residence, the issue of direct Israeli retaliation against Iran for a recent rocket attack is back on the agenda. In addition, the upcoming US elections, which are only a few weeks away, are also increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2730, 2714, 2704, 2667, 2661, 2640, 2605, 2584, 2574, 2561
• Resistance levels: 2750

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price has reached the psychological level of 2750, but there is no seller’s reaction. There is a narrowing of liquidity, which, together with MACD divergence, can give a corrective wave down. However, while there is no initiative from sellers, it is too early to open a sell trade. You can consider buying carefully intraday but with a short stop loss.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2640, the downtrend will likely resume.