The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.10.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1031
• Prev. Close: 1.0975
• % chg. over the last day: -0.51 %

On Friday, the Dollar Index rose more than 0.5% to nearly 102.5, the highest level since mid-August, after the release of a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that reduced the likelihood of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Nonfarm Payroll employment rose by 254,000 in September, exceeding expectations, while the previous two months’ figures were revised upward by 72,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below expectations of 4.2%. The rise in the Dollar Index put pressure on the European currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0950, 1,0918
• Resistance levels: 1.0979, 1.1013, 1.1036, 1.1079, 1.1136, 1.1163

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. On Friday, the euro fell sharply against the US dollar and reached the 1.0950 support level. Sellers’ pressure remains, but there are the first signs of profit-taking. The MACD divergence indicates the approaching corrective movement. Today we should not expect volatility here, most likely the market will trade in the corridor between 1.0950 and 1.0979. Both levels can be used to enter positions, but only with intraday confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.1163 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3115
• Prev. Close: 1.3117
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

This week’s test for the pound could be the monthly GDP data for August, which will be released on Friday and will be accompanied by industrial production figures as well as trade data for the month. Disappointing figures could reinforce Bailey’s remarks on interest rate cuts. The market is now almost certain that a quarter-point rate cut will happen in November and, with a 65% probability, expects another cut in December. 

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3097, 1.3035
• Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro, but the British pound shows more resistance to the fall. Currently, the price has reached the support level of 1.3097, where the sellers’ profits are being taken. The MACD divergence indicates a corrective movement, but the intraday pressure is still behind the sellers. Under such market conditions, buying should be sought from the support level of 1.3097, but with confirmation. For selling, it is best to use the resistance level of 1.3175.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3389 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 146.83
• Prev. Close: 148.66
• % chg. over the last day: +1.24 %

The Japanese yen rose to 148 against the dollar, losing more than 3% this week as Japan’s top officials tempered their expectations for more interest rate hikes. Incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said it was too early for further rate hikes given current economic conditions. Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa also urged the Central Bank to be cautious about another rate hike. In addition, Ishiba’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is tasked with developing measures aimed at lowering prices, economic growth, and helping low-income households.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 146.87, 146.02, 144.20, 143.53, 142.22
• Resistance levels: 149.37, 151.26

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trying to test the resistance zone above 149.37. The MACD divergence is getting stronger, which increases the probability of corrective movement from this zone. Intraday, we can look for buying up to this zone, but with short targets. For selling, it is worth considering 148.37, but also with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 146.02, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2657
• Prev. Close: 2653
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15 %

Markets are closely watching developments in the Middle East as concerns intensified after US President Biden on Thursday refrained from directly condemning a possible Israeli strike on Iran. Tel Aviv has vowed to retaliate against Iran and has also stepped up its activity in Beirut amid conflict with Hezbollah. Any intensification of confrontation between these countries will entail the withdrawal of investors to safe assets, primarily gold.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2632, 2623, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2669, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. On Friday on the news the price tested the resistance zone above 2669, where the sellers took the initiative. Currently, the price is aiming to test the support at 2632, where we should expect the reaction of buyers. Thus, gold has marked the boundaries of the wide-volatility flat. Buying should be considered from 2632 but with confirmation. Selling can be looked for on intraday timeframes from the moving average lines.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.