The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.05.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0786
• Prev. Close: 1.0818
• % chg. over the last day: +0.29%

The euro found support on Tuesday after the German ZEW survey’s Economic Growth Expectations Index for May rose more than expected to a 2-year high. The ZEW for May rose by 4.2 to a 2-year high of 47.1, beating expectations of 46.4. The euro was also supported by hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, who said the ECB should not rush to cut interest rates further after a likely first cut in June.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0803,1.0781,1.0750,1.0713,1.0688,1.0652,1.0623,1.0590
• Resistance levels: 1.0835,1.0865

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The 1.0790–1.0795 supply zone was finally broken and now the price seeks to test the liquidity above 1.0835. Under such market conditions, buying should be sought from the support zone below 1.0803, but with confirmation. If the price does not react to this zone, we should expect a fall to 1.0759. Sell trades can be considered from 1.0835, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level at 1.0759 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2555
• Prev. Close: 1.2590
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

The UK unemployment rate rose for a third month, and wage growth remained at 6%, which aligns with the Bank of England’s prognosis, boosting bets that the Central Bank will soon start cutting interest rates. The probability of a Bank of England rate cut had risen slightly to 50% by June, and traders continue to bet that the Central Bank will cut the rate by two-quarters of a point before the end of the year. This is a dovish signal for the British currency, but the pound rose to 1.2600 yesterday despite this.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2567,1.2548,1.2487,1.2465,1.2446,1.2423
• Resistance levels: 1.2611,1.2634,1.2674,1.2707

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The British pound continued to grow yesterday from the moving average lines. At the same time, the last surge in volumes indicates the presence of a buyer. The price is now looking to test liquidity above 1.2611, so intraday buying can be considered. The area above 1.2611 can be considered for selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2508 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 156.15
• Prev. Close: 156.41
• % chg. over the last day: +0.16%

The yen fell to a weekly low against the dollar on Tuesday and remains under pressure on speculation that the Japanese authorities will not intervene in the Forex market again anytime soon to support the yen. The fundamental picture indicates that the yen will continue to lose ground against the dollar, even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates and ended a multi-year cycle of negative interest rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 155.06,153.83,153.12,151.93,151.59
• Resistance levels: 156.29,156.57,157.12,158.20,160.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The further medium-term movement will depend on how the price reacts to the zone above 156.28–156.56. If sellers are not active here, the probability of a trend change and a new wave of growth to the historical highs will increase sharply. Selling should be considered if the price consolidates below 156.12. There are no optimal entry points for buying.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 158.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2337
• Prev. Close: 2357
• % chg. over the last day: +0.86%

Producer prices rose more than expected in April, but the March data was revised downward, which relieved investors. However, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated on Tuesday that inflation is falling more slowly than expected and, therefore, the Central Bank will hold rates for an extended period. Higher rates reduce the appeal of gold, but increased price pressures increase its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Markets will now focus on the Consumer Price Index data to be released today to get further insight into the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2343,2328,2307,2276,2249,2229,2206
• Resistance levels: 2360,2365,2372,2418

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price has not reached the support zone of 2328. Buyers showed initiative earlier, forming a demand zone below 2342. But now the price has reached the resistance zone near 2360. The reaction of sellers is weak, so most likely the price will reach the zone above 2365, where you can look for sell deals, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 2306 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.