The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.11.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0666
• Prev. Close: 1.0683
• % chg. over the last day: +0.16%

The US dollar came under pressure on Friday after the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index fell more than expected to a 6-month low in November. But the euro’s gains were also limited amid dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde indicating that she favors a pause in ECB rate hikes. In general, the situation on the EUR/USD currency pair remains stalemate due to the uncertainty of the Eurozone and US central banks for the upcoming meetings.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0634,1.0609,1.0557,1.0522,1.0495,1.0483
• Resistance levels: 1.0693,1.0726,1.0768,1.0826

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. At the moment, the price is forming a flat accumulation at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Buying can be sought from the support levels at 1.0634. Falling below 1.0634 is undesirable as it will start to change sentiment, and then the uptrend will be jeopardized. Sell deals should be considered after testing the resistance level of 1.0693, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ reactions.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0610 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2219
• Prev. Close: 1.27471.2223
• % chg. over the last day: +0.03%

The British Pound exchange rate was relatively unchanged after the UK GDP report unexpectedly beat forecasts on most indicators. The economy grew by 0.2% last month (forecast 0.0%). However, the overall picture shows that the economy is still depressed, with the 3-month average hitting annual lows and near negative territory. The biggest negative surprise came from business investment, which indicates the difficult economic conditions for businesses as a result of tight monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2199,1.2156,1.2133
• Resistance levels: 1.2238,1.2268,1.2311,1.2361,1.2427,1.2504

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. On Friday, the price corrected to the 1.2199 support level when buyers showed their interest. The MACD indicator is still negative, but there is a small divergence. Buying should be sought from the support level of 1.2199 but with confirmation intraday. Sell trades can be looked for after the sellers’ reaction at 1.2268.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2156 and consolidates below, with a high probability the downtrend will resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 151.31
• Prev. Close: 151.54
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

The yen fell to a new 1-week low against the dollar on Friday. At the opening of trading on Monday, the yen continued its losses. Central bank divergence has a negative impact on the Japanese currency as the Bank of Japan maintains negative interest rates and QE while other G7 central banks tighten their monetary policy. And until this differential begins to narrow, the yen will remain under pressure.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.05,150.60,149.84,149.19,148.96,147.32,147.02,146.76
• Resistance levels: 151.71,151.91

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. Quotes are steadily growing, breaking through all resistance levels, while the moving averages are perfectly supporting the movement. The MACD indicator is above zero, but there are signs of divergence, and it is getting stronger. And this could lead to sharp sell-offs on the first reaction of sellers. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered intraday from the moving average lines with a target to the resistance level of 151.91. If the price impulsively returns below the 151.71 level, selling to the nearest support levels could be considered.

Alternative scenario:

if the price consolidates below the support level at 149.19, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1957
• Prev. Close: 1939
• % chg. over the last day: -0.92%

Precious metals prices retreated on Friday, with gold falling to a 3-week low and silver to a 1-month low. The negative impact of Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments on Thursday weighed on precious metals prices when he said that policymakers were unsure whether they were on course to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. In addition, fears of an escalating war between Israel and Hamas eased, limiting demand for precious metals.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1933,1918
• Resistance levels: 1955,1965,1971,1979,1989,2004,2009

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Today, at the open, the price formed a false breakout zone below 1933, and now this zone may become a fundamental balance for a trend reversal. At the moment, price is trading below the moving average lines, and the MACD indicator remains negative, but the divergence is intensifying. Under these market conditions, buying can be considered intraday from the 1933 support level, but with confirmation in the form of buyer reaction and short targets. For sell deals, the resistance level of 1955 can be considered, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ reaction.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 1989, the uptrend will likely resume.