The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.04.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0920
• Prev. Close: 1.0883
• % chg. over the last day: -0.33%

Inflation reports will be released today in the US and Germany. Analysts forecast another 1.2% increase in US inflation. Germany’s inflation rate in March 2022 was 7.3% year on year. Last month, the value was 5.1%. Thus, German inflation in March 2022 reached its highest level since the German reunification. ZEW institute forecasts are also important indicators of the European economy, and analysts expect a significant slowdown.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0857,1.0823,1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.0946,1.0958,1.1027,1.1075,1.1135,1.1196,1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has adopted a more flat structure. The MACD indicator is inactive, but the first signs of buyers have appeared. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0857, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades should be considered from the resistance level of 1.0946 or 1.0958, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.1075 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3029
• Prev. Close: 1.3023
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04%

Rising inflation in the US will increase expectations of an aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. Against this background, the dollar index may continue to rise, which will harm the British pound due to declining UK economic indicators.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2976,1.2863
• Resistance levels: 1.3053,1.3107,1.3144,1.3181,1.3244,1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend has changed to bearish. Buyers failed to hold the priority change level. The price has consolidated below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.3053, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2976 if the price shows bullish initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the 1.3181 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 124.01
• Prev. Close: 125.38
• % chg. over the last day: +1.10%

The fundamental picture for the Japanese yen remains unchanged. The Bank of Japan keeps government bond yields near zero, while US government bonds are rising. The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now “ultra-soft” and aims to decrease the national currency rate (USD/JPY growth). The US Fed will tighten monetary policy more aggressively. The dollar index rose to its highest level in almost two years. The medium-term forecast remains unchanged – analysts see a continuation of the uptrend, as the monetary policies of the central banks in the United States and Japan are now opposed.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 124.66,124.24,122.97,122.63,121.81
• Resistance levels: 125.28,125.82

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive again. The buyers’ pressure is increasing. But the price has deviated very much from the moving averages. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but after the price makes a pullback to the average lines. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 124.66 or 124.24, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 125.82 may be considered for sell deals, but only after the seller’s initiative and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

If the price fixes below 121.81, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2562
• Prev. Close: 1.2632
• % chg. over the last day: +0.79%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on the movement of oil prices and the dollar index. OPEC has told the EU that it is impossible to compensate for the potential loss of Russian oil supplies. Current and future sanctions against Russia could cause serious shocks to oil supplies in history, and it will be impossible to compensate for these volumes. This situation will contribute to rising commodity prices. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada plans to tighten its monetary policy, so in the medium-term, the USD/CAD currency pair will show broad volatility without a single dynamic.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2590,1.2476,1.2430
• Resistance levels: 1.2654,1.2713,1.2754,1.2851

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish, as the price has consolidated above moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of weakness of the buyers. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for the medium-term trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2590, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2654, but it is better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2430, the downtrend will likely be resumed.