The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.03.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0998
• Prev. Close: 1.0983
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06%

A split is brewing inside the European Union, with some countries refusing to pay Russia for energy resources in rubles. So far, countries that are extremely dependent on Russian oil and gas are considering this possibility. This situation negatively affects the national currency of the Eurozone. In its turn, Fed policy tightening will contribute to the growth of the dollar index, which is also negative for the Euro.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0917,1.0887,1.0823,1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.0963,1.1007,1.10371.1079,1.1112,1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. The MACD indicator is negative again. The sellers’ pressure has increased. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1007. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.0917, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.1037 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3183
• Prev. Close: 1.3180
• % chg. over the last day: -0.02%

The fundamental picture for the GBP/USD currency pair looks uncertain. On the one hand, the tightening of the US Fed’s policy will help strengthen the dollar. On the other hand, the Bank of England is also raising interest rates to fight inflation, which will support the British currency. There is a third factor – the rise in Brent oil prices also contributes to the pound’s strengthening.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3140,1.3074,1.3015,1.2989,1.2863
• Resistance levels: 1.3168,1.3244,1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish. The price has corrected to a strong support level, opening good opportunities to look for trades. But the MACD indicator has turned negative, the sellers’ pressure has increased. Under such market conditions, buy deals should be considered from the support level of 1.3140, but better with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3244, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the 1.3074 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 122.32
• Prev. Close: 122.08
• % chg. over the last day: -0.19%

The upward trend on the USD/JPY currency pair continues. The Central Bank of Japan continues to actively stimulate the economy with “cheap” money, which allows the Japanese economy to maintain a stable growth trajectory, as evidenced by the growth of the Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) over the past two weeks. However, this policy harms the national currency. Given that the US Fed plans to raise the interest rates more aggressively at the next meetings, this situation favors the continued growth of USD/JPY quotes in the mid-term prospect.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 122.37,121.27,120.78,119.96,119.52,118.58,118.06
• Resistance levels: 123.73

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price breaks through the resistance levels without significant corrections. The lesser the pullbacks, the bigger and faster will be the fall on the corrective movement. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. There are signs of overbought and divergence on several time frames. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals after a pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the moving averages. A support level of 122.37 would be the best, but with additional confirmation. The resistance level of 123.73 can be considered for sell deals, but only after the sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price fixes below 120.89, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2524
• Prev. Close: 1.2576
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly dependent not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. Last week, oil prices fell slightly, and the dollar index rose, but this did not significantly impact the downtrend of the USD/CAD pair. This means that the Canadian dollar is now also strengthening thanks to the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, which plans to raise interest rates soon.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2453
• Resistance levels: 1.2537,1.2591,1.2655,1.2713,1.2754,1.2851

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. The price has reached the daily support level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone. There are signs of divergence on several timeframes. It is worth trading only with short targets because on the USD/CAD currency pair fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for a medium-term trend, as the dollar index also has the support of the Fed in the medium term. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2453, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2537.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2654, the downtrend will likely be broken.