The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.03.14

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0979
• Prev. Close: 1.0911
• % chg. over the last day: -0.62%

Europe may face food shortages as Russia and Ukraine are the major grains exporters to Europe. The business activity index in the region also now has negative expectations. This situation harms the European currency, and at the moment, it is not clear how the ECB will stop inflation growth in the region.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0887,1.0823,1.0633
• Resistance levels: 1.0986,1.1051,1.1112,1.1291

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator is negative again. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell trades on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.0986 or 1.1051. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.0887, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.1112 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3083
• Prev. Close: 1.3037
• % chg. over the last day: -0.35%

The British pound continues to decline, although the Bank of England has already raised the interest rate several times. This suggests that inflation in the country is accelerating again while economic growth is slowing down. The Bank of England will hold another meeting this week, and analysts expect to see another interest rate hike of 25bp.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2989,1.2863
• Resistance levels: 1.3085,1.3164,1.3274

On the hourly time frame, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Volatility remains high, and sellers’ pressure remains. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence towards buy deals on the higher time frames. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.2989, but it is better with confirmation. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3085.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.3274 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 116.13
• Prev. Close: 117.27
• % chg. over the last day: +0.98%

The Japanese yen fell to a new five-year low. This week, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will hold monetary policy meetings. However, while the Federal Reserve will almost certainly raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan will remain dovish on monetary policy for an extended period due to low inflation and high energy prices. This situation favors the growth of USD/JPY quotes. But investors should remember that the Japanese yen is a safe-haven currency in case of various financial disturbances. In this regard, the war in Ukraine can make adjustments.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 117.34,116.95,116.32
• Resistance levels: 117.80,118.64

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. There are signs of overbought but no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals after a small pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the moving averages. A support level of 117.34 would be best, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, the resistance level of 117.80 can be considered, but it is necessary to wait for the reaction of sellers.

Alternative scenario:

if the price fixes below 116.32, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2766
• Prev. Close: 1.2742
• % chg. over the last day: -0.19%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly dependent not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dynamics of oil prices and the dollar index. The dollar index continues to show growth while oil remains stable, and now there are the first signs for the “black gold” price decrease. All this leads to USD/CAD quotes being more inclined to grow in the mid-term.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2733,1.2653,1.2555,1.2517
• Resistance levels: 1.2814,1.2871,1.2890

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bullish. The price trades between the moving averages, indicating a more flat structure within a bullish trend. It is worth trading only with short targets, as both oil and the dollar index are still fundamentally inclined to rise. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on lower time frames from the support level of 1.2733, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2814.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2733, the downtrend will likely resume.