The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.12.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1298
• Prev. Close: 1.1305
• % chg. over the last day: +0.06%

On Friday, ECB head Christine Lagarde said that the ECB will end its PEPP program in March 2022, and it is highly unlikely that the ECB will raise interest rates in 2022. However, inflation expectations in the Eurozone continue to rise, and unemployment in the Eurozone is much higher than in the United States, indicating a weak labor market recovery.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1263,1.1230,1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1371,1.1436,1.1535,1.1613,1.1667,1.1717

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish. The price is currently trading in a corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the priority change level of 1.1371. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.1371 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3296
• Prev. Close: 1.3220
• % chg. over the last day: -0.58%

The UK will publish October GDP data this week ahead of the Bank of England’s December meeting. Recent UK economic data showed that the Bank of England may start to raise interest rates at the December meeting, but due to new uncertainty related to the Omicron strain, policymakers may decide to wait until early 2022. For that reason, investors are now bearish on the GBP.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3232
• Resistance levels: 1.3360,1.3434,1.3507,1.3575,1.3685,1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. A narrowing of liquidity in the form of a “triangle” pattern was in sales direction. The MACD indicator became negative, but it is still signaling divergence on several time frames. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. Buy trades should be considered on the support levels of higher time frames, given the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.3385 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 113.13
• Prev. Close: 112.79
• % chg. over the last day: -0.30%

The Japanese yen continues to strengthen as a safe haven currency since markets are still in high uncertainty due to the spread of the Omicron strain. This has led to renewed restrictions in various countries and heightened fears over possible more decisive action by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation. But analysts are confident that the USD/JPY quotes will continue to rise once tensions ease.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 112.62,112.30
• Resistance levels: 113.61,114.48,115.15,115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Currently, the price is trading in the corridor with the 112.62-113.61 range. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average or from the upper border of the corridor, but with additional confirmation. Buy positions should be considered from the lower border of the corridor, but with additional confirmation in the form of a buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price rises above 114.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2802
• Prev. Close: 1.2838
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28%

Analysts are bullish on the Canadian dollar (bearish on the USD/CAD) despite the uncertainty surrounding the Omicron COVID-19 strain, expecting oil prices to recover and the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner than the US Federal Reserve. A Reuters forecast with 32 strategists shows the Canadian dollar will rise by 2.4% to 1.25 per US dollar in three months.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2743,1.2646,1.2598,1.2571,1.2483,1.2416,1.2388
• Resistance levels: 1.2828

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency trend is bullish. The price is trading flat in the corridor with a range of 1.2743-1.2828. But there is a pressure of buyers to the upper border. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the lower border of the flat corridor or after a true breakout. Given the sellers ‘ initiative, sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the 1.2687 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.