The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1555
• Prev. Close: 1.1603
• % chg. over the last day: +0.42%

Yesterday, the EUR quotes partially recovered their positions after the decline on Friday, which made analysts somewhat skeptical whether the Fed will announce the beginning of the QE program cut tomorrow. If Jerome Powell announces tomorrow that the cutting stimulus will start not in November but in December, the dollar index may sharply fall, which will push the EUR/USD quotes higher.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1548,1.1502,1.1453
• Resistance levels: 1.1618,1.1645,1.1667,1.1717,1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD trend on the hourly time frame has changed to bearish. On Friday, the price broke through the priority change level and consolidated lower. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. It is best to look for buy trades from the support levels of the higher timeframe.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will be more likely to resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3674
• Prev. Close: 1.3662
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09%

The British pound does not show a correlation with the euro now and declined by 0.09% yesterday. Pressure on the quotes is given by the weak statistical data on the manufacturing PMI index, which stopped showing the growth and seasonal weakening of the commodities markets with which the British pound is highly correlated.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3617,1.3532,1.3457,1.3360
• Resistance levels: 1.3685,1.3748,1.3780,1.3831,1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD has changed to bearish. Yesterday, the price consolidated below the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are already signs of sellers’ weakness. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher timeframe. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.3780 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 114.02
• Prev. Close: 113.98
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03%

The Japanese Yen is strengthening due to 2 main factors. The first one is the decline of the dollar index. The second is that Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party won 261 seats in Sunday’s elections, retaining its absolute majority in the lower house of parliament. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida now feels free to implement his “new capitalism” program. The minutes of the monetary policy meeting indicated that the Bank of Japan intends to begin reducing the stimulus program as soon as the economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are weakened. Currently, the Bank of Japan keeps ultra-soft monetary policy to support the economy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 113.42,112.30,111.53,110.99,110.65
• Resistance levels: 114.48,115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trading in a wide price corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zones on the lower timeframes. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher timeframe, given sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2380
• Prev. Close: 1.2366
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index decreased on Monday, while oil prices slightly increased. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes decreased due to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2352,1.2306,1.2260
• Resistance levels: 1.2402,1.2518,1.2565,1.2628,1.2729,1.2774

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the pressure of buyers is increasing, and the price is approaching the priority change level. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels of the higher timeframe. Buy trades should be considered from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out through the 1.2428 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.