The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.04.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0686
• Prev. Close: 1.0719
• % chg. over the last day: +0.31%

Today, the Eurozone will release April inflation data. Consumer prices are expected to be unchanged from last month. In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, the National Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 2.2% in April, slightly below forecasts of 2.3%. In addition, Spain’s inflation rose to 3.3%, driven by higher food and gas prices. Meanwhile, core inflation in both countries slowed to new multi-year lows due to a slowdown in services inflation. The ECB intended to reduce borrowing costs in June amid gradually easing price pressures and signs of weakening economic activity.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0689,1.0632,1.0590
• Resistance levels: 1.0727,1.0756,1.0795,1.0843,1.0865

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price begins to form a flat accumulation. The resistance level at 1.0727 prevents the price from continuing the upward movement, although each subsequent bounce from the level is weaker than the previous one. Volatility has decreased, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. The support level of 1.0689 can be considered for buying, but with confirmation. A consolidation below 1.0689 may trigger selling to 1.0652.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0752 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2474
• Prev. Close: 1.2561
• % chg. over the last day: +0.70%

Few economic developments have occurred in the UK this trading week. Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden recently suggested that the risk of UK inflation remaining too high has diminished. Chief economist Huw Pill also noted that recent economic developments have brought the possibility of a rate cut closer; however, he cautioned that it could still be some time away. The British pound benefited from the clear signs that things are not going as badly in the country’s economy as many feared earlier this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2507,1.2457,1.2423,1.2423,1.2381,1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2581,1.2612,1.2634,1.2674,1.2707

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to an upward trend. The price has consolidated above the priority level change. However, the divergence on the MACD indicates a high probability of a corrective decline. For buy deals, it is best to consider the zone below 1.2507, but with confirmation. There is no optimal entry point for sell deals now as the price may jump to 1.2581.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2522 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 157.81
• Prev. Close: 156.33
• % chg. over the last day: -0.94%

On Monday, the yen fell to 160 per dollar for the first time since 1990 before jumping more than 3% to 154.5 per dollar due to a supposed intervention by the Japanese authorities. Meanwhile, the government has not confirmed whether it has intervened in the markets to support the yen. However, chief foreign exchange diplomat Masato Kanda said they will release the results at the end of next month and take appropriate measures in the foreign exchange market if necessary.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 154.96,154.54,153.95
• Resistance levels: 157.23,158.19,160.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price fell sharply yesterday based on the supposed intervention by the Japanese authorities. The high volume indicated the presence of a significant seller. The price reached 154.96, but the buyers could defend their positions and did not let it consolidate below. A broadly volatile flat is forming now, which is unsurprising as the price needs to calm down and accumulate new liquidity. Sell deals can be considered from the area above resistance at 157.23 or 158.19, but with confirmation. Buying can be looked at from the moving averages on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 154.55, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2335
• Prev. Close: 2335
• % chg. over the last day: 0.0%

High-interest rates are reducing the attractiveness of gold, which does not generate income. However, bullion continues to be supported by strong physical demand from China and accompanying geopolitical risks in the Middle East. At the moment, gold is under weak selling pressure because the market overestimated the probability of the first-rate cut from the US Fed for a later date. However, the general fundamental background for precious metals this year remains bullish.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2314,2292,2267,2249,2229,2206
• Resistance levels: 2337,2350,2367,2400

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. The price forms a broadly volatile flat with signs of bearish pressure on intraday time frames. This situation will likely remain until the US Fed meeting tomorrow. With a high probability the price will continue its slow decline to test 2314 again. Selling can be sought intraday from the resistance level of 2337. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance level of 2400, the uptrend will likely resume.