The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.11.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0397
• Prev. Close: 1.0411
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

The minutes of the October European Central Bank meeting does not indicate a reversal soon. The ECB is underlining its determination to keep raising interest rates. But this time, policymakers are less aggressive, and recession fears are growing. Analysts expect the ECB to raise rates by 50 bps in December and another 25 bps in February. The issue of quantitative easing (QT) remains open. Experts believe the ECB will announce a gradual reduction in reinvestment of its asset purchase program (APP) bonds at the December meeting with the goal of stopping reinvestment by the end of 2023.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0340,1.0193,1.0092,1.0043,0.9968
• Resistance levels: 1.0504

From the technical point of view, the situation remains the same. The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly timeframe is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is positive again. It is best to consider buy deals from the support level of 1.0340 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0504, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0092 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2051
• Prev. Close: 1.2112
• % chg. over the last day: +0.50%

According to a new report from the influential Paris-based OECD group, economic growth in the UK British manufacturers lowered their production forecasts for the next three months, although they welcomed some aspects of the new budget. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt challenged the British taxman’s forecast that Brexit would shrink the size of the economy. The British government is trying to find positives for the economy from Brexit, but at this point, it was Brexit that started serious problems in the UK economy, only made worse by the Covid pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and rising global inflation.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1945,1.1684,1.1476,1.1418,1.1172,1.1093,1.0915,1.0817
• Resistance levels: 1.2147,1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator is positive, but the buyers’ pressure is decreasing, and the price has reached an important resistance zone. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.1945, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2147 or 1.2167, but also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down of the 1.1684 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 139.57
• Prev. Close: 138.63
• % chg. over the last day: -0.67%

The Japanese government left its overall assessment of the country’s economy unchanged in its monthly report for November, noting the moderate recovery but remaining cautious about the risks of a global economic slowdown and financial market fluctuations. Manufacturing activity in Japan contracted at its fastest pace in two years in November due to strong inflationary pressures, and Tokyo’s inflation beat forecasts to reach 3.6%, the highest level since 1982.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 138.51,137.65,136.80
• Resistance levels: 140.75,143.17,145.16,146.06,147.34,148.82,150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a slight buying pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level ща 138.51, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 140.75, provided there is a reversal or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario:

If the price fixes above 145.84, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3352
• Prev. Close: 1.3337
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The situation on the USD/CAD currency pair has not changed much compared to yesterday. An increase in oil reserves in the United States and a strengthening of COVID-19 control in China put a slight downward pressure on oil prices. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency that highly depends on oil price movements. But despite the decline in oil prices, the Canadian currency is resisting the dollar index.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3281,1.3212
• Resistance levels: 1.3386,1.3458,1.3508,1.3608,1.3682,1.3776,1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price has corrected to the support levels. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and the price is traded in a narrow price corridor. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3386, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.3281, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3508, the uptrend will likely resume.